Week 15 leans resulted in a 1-3 week. This week, I’ve done a deeper dive in the NFL Referees Week 16 report and give two leans. Furthermore, remember to use these stats as a handicapping tool and not solely base your bets on these stats.
What I want to do in this week’s post is highlight the best referees for the total, and the best referees for a home team and road team. Let me dive right into it!
Top ATS Record for Home Teams:
Jerome Boger: 9-5 (64.2%)
Ron Torbert 8-5 (61.5%)
Top ATS Record for Road Teams:
Clay Martin 9-2-1 (79.2%)
Shawn Hochuli 9-3 (75%)
Scott Novak 8-4-1 (65.4%)
Top Over Referees:
Clete Blakeman 12-1 (92.3%) Average Total: 60.14 points
Brad Rogers 9-1 (90%) Average Total: 56.08 points
Clay Martin 10-2 (83.3%) Average Total: 56.17 points
Jerome Boger 11-3 (78.6%) Average Total: 43.07 points
Top Under Referees:
Tony Corrente 10-3 (76.9%) Average Total: 45.15 Points
Ron Torbert 10-3 (76.9%) Average Total: 38.73 Points
Scott Novak 9-4 (69.2%) Average Total: 45.4 Points
Bill Vinovich 9-4 (69.2%) Average Total: 46.58 Points
NFL Referees Week 16
There are a few eye glaring percentages for a few referees. First, road teams are covering 79.2% of the time in games officiated by Clay Martin. Consequently, road teams average 32.5 points per game in games officiated by Clay Martin.
Second, Tony Corrente and Ron Torbert are the best Under referees. As a result, these two referees have the best Under percentage of all. Lastly, Torbert’s officiated games average a league low 38.73 points per game! In an era where it is all about quarterbacks and the passing game this stat is appalling to me!
Third, I could not believe this until I followed this stat closely. In addition, Clete Blakeman and Brad Rogers are an Over bettor dream referees. As a result, they are combined 21-2 to the Over. Furthermore, Blakeman’s game average 60 points per game! Lastly, Clay Martin is not too far behind as he has an 83.3% to the Over averaging 56 points per game.
NFL Referees Week 16 Leans
I can not sit here and ignore a referee who has a 90+% trend. Yes, it is a small sample size for the season but as a bettor you must continue to ride the hot hand. As mentioned, Blake is 12-1 to the Over averaging 60 points per game. Lastly, Blakeman is assigned to officiate the NFC West matchup on Saturday Night between the San Francisco 49ers and the Arizona Cardinals.
Lean: 49ers/Cardinals Over
As I mentioned earlier Novak is one the best Under referees. However, he is also favorable to the Road teams. As a result, road teams are 10-3 straight up, and 9-4-1 against the spread in games officiated by Novak. Lastly, Novak is assigned to the matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Detroit Lions.
Lean: Bucs On the Spread