The best part of the NFL season is here: games on Saturday! And that means Saturday NFL player props. The Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos will kick off the action at 4:30 p.m. EST, with the Carolina Panthers and Green Bay Packers follow them up at 8:15 p.m. EST. It’s going to be an afternoon full of football – and betting! – prior to the full slate on Sunday.
It’s only a two-game slate, so there isn’t as much excitement as a full slate, but ThriveFantasy makes every single game exciting. ThriveFantasy (use promo code “SGP” for a sign-up bonus) is a new world of fantasy sports gambling. You select 10 prop bets that each carry a point total based on their likelihood of happening. You can compete in tournament-style contests, double ups, or heads up matchups where the person with the most points takes home the crown. It’s a great place to play Saturday NFL player props.
Instead of getting caught up by a player having a lot of yards but no touchdowns, hurting their fantasy value, you know exactly what needs to happen in order for you to gain points. Most picks are valued at 100 points, with some props at 105-95, 110-90, or even 115-85.
Not only do we want to offer you a sign-up bonus for ThriveFantasy (promo code “SGP”), but we’ll give you a few of our favorite props to get you started toward your 10 picks.
Saturday NFL Player Props
Stefon Diggs Over 83.5 Receiving Yards – 100 points
What a season Stefon Diggs is putting together after being acquired in the offseason. He is one of the best wide receivers in the game right now and it is showing. Diggs has five 100-yard games this season, with four other games just missing the mark (86, 92, 93, 92). That is nine of 13 games that went over 83.5 receiving yards so far this year, and he should get another one against the Broncos on Saturday.
Not only does Diggs have nine games of 86 or more yards this season, but five of them have come in the last six games. I expect that to continue against a Broncos team that hasn’t done exceptionally well against top wide receivers this season. In fact, they’ve allowed Seven receivers to total 84 or more yards, with an 83-yard game and 81-yard game as well. Just last week it was Robby Anderson burning them for 84 yards on eight catches. Diggs might be able to do that damage in a half.
Diggs has 10 catches in back-to-back games with 10 and 14 targets in those two games. He’s received nine or more targets in each of his last seven games. It’s a favorable matchup for him against DeVante Bausby and company, who allowed 10-of-15 passing for 125 yards last week against the Panthers. Diggs will eat again this week.
Jerry Jeudy Under 4.5 Receptions – 85 points
Sometimes you just need guaranteed points in ThriveFantasy. This is one of those times.
Jerry Jeudy has four catches or fewer in five straight games and 11 of 13 games this season. This is simply a line that is way too high on ThriveFantasy. You need to take advantage.
Jeudy’s only received four targets in each of the past two weeks. The last time he had more than four catches was in Week 9 against the Falcons. He had seven catches on 14 targets for 125 yards. I don’t see Jeudy getting those 14 targets again. Even if he gets 10, it might not matter as he had just four catches on 10 targets in Week 8 against the Chargers.
The Bills will be able to stifle Jeudy and not let him get to five catches.
Davante Adams Over 103.5 Receiving Yards – 110 points
This is a line that is higher than most, but sometimes you have to go big to win big. After a safer play in Jeudy for just 85 points, picking Adams to have more than 103.5 receiving yards will net you 110 points.
Davante Adams is a beast and Aaron Rodgers’ favorite target. He doesn’t even try to hide it. Adams has been targeted at least 9 times in each of his 10 full games. He even had three catches on three targets in the game he got injured.
Adams has reached the century mark in six of his 10 full games, going over 103.5 yards in each of those six games. He’s done it in two straight, three of the last four, and four of the last six games.
The Panthers know Adams will get his targets, but they don’t have anyone to stop him. Adams has the second-best WR/CB matchup this week against a Panthers team that has already allowed five 100-yard games this season. Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, Calvin Ridley, Julio Jones, and Tyreek Hill all had more than 100 yards against Carolina and I fully expect Adams to join that list.
Robert Tonyan Over 3.5 Receptions – 85 points
We’re going with two stud wide receivers in Diggs and Adams, and then two safer plays in Jeudy and Tonyan.
Tonyan is right up there with Adams as one of Rodgers’ favorite targets, albeit to a lesser extend. He has four or more catches in seven games this season, including each of the last four games. If there’s no wide receiver open, Rodgers knows he has Tonyan who will make the catch. Tonyan has made 46 catches on 52 targets this season, with 19 catches on 20 targets over the last four games.
On top of that, the Panthers are one of the worst teams in the league against tight ends. They’ve allowed 5.77 catches on 8.23 targets per game. A total of 10 tight ends have had four or more catches in a game against Carolina, including both Troy Fumagalli and Nick Vannett last week. Prior to that, Kyle Rudolph had seven catches and T.J. Hockenson had four in the previous two games.
Tonyan will get his targets and rack up four or five catches on the night.
