Coming off a bummer of a Thanksgiving slate, we now enter a Week 12 NFL landscape littered with players on the COVID reserve list. While the optimal lineup in the flowchart still performed well and finished in the Top 5-7% of lineups, you basically had to have Will Fuller and Antonio Gibson to do well. Fuller was in everyone’s lineup, but the Lions bring back options didn’t perform and you needed to pick pretty perfectly on the backend of the flowchart to score well. Still saw a few screenshots, so congrats to those of you who cashed.
Now we have the rest of the Week 12 slate to dig into, and even as I am writing this Saturday morning the COVID landscape keeps changing. The Ravens and Steelers game looks like it has just about no shot at being played in Week 12, and Jonathan Taylor just popped up as an OUT for Sunday’s game. If people are looking for a reliable news source, I would recommend downloaded the Fantasy Life app and following the “News” tab pretty religiously. I will most definitely be up early Sunday morning checking in on the news, so make sure to follow me on Twitter for any updates that pop up tomorrow morning.
NFL DFS Flowchart Week 12 – DraftKings GPP
There are some pretty clear games to target on the main slate this week. Kyler Murray has a matchup with New England, and I want to fade him with Belichick scheming against the 2nd year stud. The Chargers and Bills have the third highest total of the day, and both QBs have been fantasy relevations are season. I am sticking with the highest total game for Week 12, but rolling with the GOAT instead of the $500 million dollar man. I think this game could really be an all-time matchup. We have seen both of these defenses looks vulnerable at many times this season, so the points should be a plenty. Tom Brady has finally started to get the offense clicking again now that Antonio Brown has a couple of games under his belt. While Brady doesn’t have the same rushing upside of some of the young guns, we’ve still seen him be the highest scoring quarterback on a slate this season, and I think this game will have a lot of touchdowns. For this reason, I am going with Mike Evans over Chris Godwin because I think like Evans upside in the projected red zone opportunities. When this “primetime” Sunday afternoon matchup rolls around this weekend, I am hoping we will see the flowchart lineups steadily climbing up the leaderboards.
Travis Kelce is essentially a WR1 with a tight end position designation, and the DraftKings pricing reflects that. Kelce is $1000 more expensive than the 2nd most expensive option (Darren Waller), and he still might be the best play on the slate. In a year where the tight end position has been extremely volatile, I like correlating the top option in a shootout game script. Even though we just crowned Kelce as a WR1, the Chiefs also have Tyreek Hill who has firmly stamped his own WR1 status this season. Formerly knows for his big play ability, Tyreek Hill has been a target monster recently and he should see plenty of opportunity against the Bucs.
Low-Owned Leverage Plays
Hunter Henry and Cole Beasley are both fairly consistent options that come at a huge ownership discount in the Chargers and Bills game. I think Beasley has a much safer floor than Gabriel Davis and should be 5X less owned, meanwhile Henry has had two straight week’s with a touchdown and I am hoping the streak continues.
While I am fading Kyler Murray this weekend (maybe to my own detriment), I still want to have apiece of the Cardinals offense. Belichick likes to focus on the team’s #1 option, so I expect DeAndre Hopkins to receive plenty of double teams. I prefer Chase Edmonds receiving upside over Kenyan Drake so I am rolling with the more shifty Cardinals running back here.
Finally, similar to the above secondary stack in the LAC/BUF game I really like both Olamide Zaccheaus and Nelson Agholor from the Falcons and Raiders matchup. Normally, with Julio out Zaccheaus would be receiving a lot of ownership, but fortunately Brian Hill has taken on that roll this week stepping in for the injured Todd Gurley. Agholor has been pretty consistent catching the deep ball from Carr this week and I like his blow up potential in the Atlanta dome this weekend.
Studs and Chalk Plays
With Taylor on the COVID list, Nyheim Hines will surely be a very chalky option. He has a great matchup with Tennessee in Week 12, so feel free to load him up. Kareem Hunt is coming off one of the worst fantasy games of his career in Week 11 and received a huge price discount. I will count on a bounce back from the RB1b in this run heavy Browns offense.
That does it for this week’s flowchart! Good luck and I hope to see some screenshots this weekend!
PREVIOUS FLOWCHART RESULTS
Week 1 – Optimal Lineup 157 DKPts, min cash in GPPs (top 20%)
Week 2 – Optimal Lineup 175.4 DKPts, 3X-4X cash in GPPs (top 4-5%)
Week 3 – Optimal Lineup 122.3 DKPts, no cash
Week 4 – Optimal Lineup 171.3 DKPts, 2X cash in GPPs (top 7-10%)
Week 5 – Optimal Lineup 178.92, 3X cash in GPPs (top 3-4%)
Week 6 – Optimal Lineup 180.2, 2X-3X cash in GPPs (top 5-6%) (ALL LINEUPS CASHED)
Week 7 – Optimal Lineup 153.34, no cash
Week 8 – Optimal Lineup 140.12, no cash
Week 9 – Optimal Lineup 174.26, 3X-4X cash in GPPs (top 4-5%)
Week 10 – Optimal Lineup 178.92, 10X-15X cash in GPPs (TOP 1%)
Week 11 – Optimal Lineup 168.12, 2X-3X cash in GPPs (top 4-5%)
Thanksgiving – Optimal Lineup 187.42, 2X-3X cash in GPPs (top 5-7%)