As golf fans, we have been spoiled with the majors-like fields. We have watched the best in the world play for three weeks straight.
But all things must end. This week’s event is your typical PGA event. A few big names are playing but many of the world’s best golfers are taking a week off for rest.
That’s good news for all you degenerates out there. The casual fans will forget to build lineups this week. That means you have a better chance of taking DraftKings milly-maker!
The Tour heads over to Detroit to take on the Rocket Mortgage Classic. This is the second year it’s been held at Detroit Golf Club and we expect another birdie fest performance. To stand a chance come Sunday, you will have to be able to go very low. We expect the winning score to be around -25 this week.
- SG: Approach
- Birdie or Better Gained
- SG: Par 5 Scoring
- SG: Eagles Gained
- SG: Ball Striking
- SG: Putting Bentgrass
Tyrell Hatton $10,700
This is an extremely high price for our boy Tyrell, but we think he fits this course and tournament too well to not play him. In his last five PGA, starts Hatton has gone 6th, 14th, 6th, 1st, and 3rd, which are Bryson-type numbers. This course will be rewarding to great approach players as OTT is not as important this week and Hatton is currently ranked 2nd in approach over the past 36 rounds in this field. Another key aspect this week, will be the ability to go low as the winner will most likely be sub-20 under. Tyrell excels at these tourneys on the Euro Tour such as when he went -20 this year to win the Turkish Open. We think this week lines up well for the English Bulldog and he may be getting his second PGA victory this week.
Tony Finau $9,300
If there was ever a man overdue for a win, it’s Tony Finau. The world’s seventeenth best golfer did not play his best golf last week, missing the cut at the Travelers. We believe this is an outlier. This week, on a course that is meant for long hitter and bent grass, screams Tony Finau. If Finau can fix his approach game from last week, he should be in contention come Sunday. He has a keen eye for Bentgrass as it is his preferred putting surface and has gained 2.4 strokes tee to green on the field past 5 events.
Kevin Na $9,100
You can’t win a birdie fest without sinking birdie putts. Kevin Na is one of the premier putters in this field, ranking out third in our model over the past 50 rounds. Na had himself a very nice tournament last week, finishing in 3rd place at the Travelers. He gained 5.6 strokes on the field putting; this week stick to the same surface and expect similar results. He also gained 2.2 strokes on approach which will also be key this week along with 4.7 tee to green. Na had two wins in 2019 and there is no reason to believe this can’t be his first in 2020.
Harold Varner III
For a mid tier play this week, we like Harold Varner. Varner has played some quality golf since coming off the break, finishing in 19th at the Charles Schwab and 32nd last week at the Travelers. His approach numbers his last five rounds have been solid, gaining 3.6 strokes on the field. He is also a monster off the tee gaining 4.2 strokes. With a weaker field this week, there is no reason to believe Varner can’t be in contention come Sunday. The biggest concern we have with him is his flatstick, but that can get hot at any moment.
Sebastian Munoz $7,100
If you have read our articles since golf is coming back you know we love this young Colombian. I hate sticking on the same guy multiple weeks in a row, but he just keeps popping in all of the models and key stats. In the past 36 rounds Munoz ranks 11th in approach, 30th in Birdie or Better, 33rd in Par 5 Scoring, 37th in Eagles Gained, and 30th in DK points. He also has win equity when he showed he could win on the PGA tour at Sanderson Farms earlier this year. For this price we love Sebastian much more than guys priced above him.
Sepp Straka $6,700
Let me just start by saying this pick scares me. Sepp Straka may be the streakiest golfer on tour. In the three tournaments since the start, Sepp has gone 67 or lower in 4 of his 8 rounds. Unfortunately, this has led to only one cut made, but it shows that he has the ability to go low. He also placed 4th at two other birdie fests this year at the Amex and Houston Open. While we like his ability to go low and place high in tournaments, he is also ranking 25th in ball striking over his past 24 rounds which is very encouraging to see. Going this cheap in a weak field is risky, but if Sepp avoids his typical blow up round, watch out.
Others to Consider –
Hovland ($10,000), Sungjae ($9,800), Fowler ($9,500), Kevin Na ($9,100), Lucas Glover ($8,400), Bezuidenhout ($8,300), Adam Hadwin ($8,200), Maverick McNealy ($7,600), Patrick Rodgers ($7,400), Tyler Duncan ($7,000), Harry Higgs ($6,800), Matthew Wolff ($6,800)