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SGPN College Football Tournament: Simulation Odds and Picks (June 14th)

SGPN College Football Tournament

Yesterday we scored our first ever upset in the SGPN College Football Tournament as Notre Dame went up to Madison, Wisconsin and knocked off the Wisconsin Badgers in a blowout. Then the Clemson Tigers blew out Louisiana Lafayette to set up a future matchup of Notre Dame @ Clemson coming in the Elite 8. Tonight we get another potential upset as the Baylor Bears head in to Eugene, Oregon to take on the Ducks and we get a rematch from September with Florida Atlantic heading to Columbus, Ohio to take on the Buckeyes.

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Baylor Bears @ Oregon Ducks

Line: Oregon -3

Total: 64

Sunday 5pm PST

Matt Rhule and the Baylor Bears don’t want to end their magical 2019 season just yet. The Bears are led by junior quarterback Charlie Brewer. Brewer is an absolute stud and with most of the attention going to future Los Angeles Chargers Justin Herbert watch out for Charlie Brewer to potentially outplay Herbert. Brewer must not try to do too much though. Throughout the season Brewer kept getting injured and dinged up by running the ball and not sliding, he’s got to be smarter than that in this tournament. Brewer’s top receiving target who’s also NFL bound is wideout Denzel Mims who is a speedster who can change the game at any point. The ground game is in the hands of a solid duo of running backs in John Lovett & JaMycal Hasty with both backs running for 600 plus yards during the regular season.

Defensively the Bears are led by junior defensive lineman James Lynch who had 13.5 sacks and should give the Ducks and their skilled offensive line a big test. Another great Bears player to watch in the front seven is linebacker Clay Johnston who was a Butkus award nominee. If the Bears can limit the big play from the Oregon Ducks and Justin Herbert they should be in this game come the fourth quarter.

The Oregon Ducks are led by head coach Mario Cristobal and senior QB Justin Herbert. One of the main reasons why the Ducks have been so successful is Justin Herbert and the Ducks offensive line which is among the best in all of college football. The Ducks offense has been a bit up and down throughout the season though and needs to be more consistent if they want to win in the SGPN college football tournament. CJ Verdell is an explosive running back who should give Baylor problems. Keep an eye out on Ducks tight end Jacob Breeland who’s a personal favorite for Herbert.

Defensively the Ducks are probably the most talented they’ve been in decades. The defensive line has an absolute stud in defensive tackle Jordan Scott. Scott is accompanied with Austin Faoliu to form one of the best defensive tackle duo’s in all the nation. The heart of the defense is Duck senior linebacker Troy Dye who’s all over the field making plays. Dye could certainly be the difference maker in this game if Baylor quarterback Brewer tries to use his mobility to help the Bears win the game.

Prediction:

The Oregon Ducks will be in a battle all game with Matt Rhule and company but the Ducks will pull away late to cover the spread. I’ll take the under as well as both teams will give the offense some challenges.

SGPN College Football Tournament

Florida Atlantic @ Ohio State

Line: Ohio State -19

Total: 59

Sunday 7pm PST

Lane Kiffin isn’t headed to Oxford, Mississippi to be the next Ole Miss Rebels head coach just yet. Kiffin wants one more crack at Ohio State in the horseshoe before he leaves Boca Raton. Yes, this is the 2nd time these teams will face each other this season with both coming in the horseshoe. Florida Atlantic opened the season in Columbus, Ohio losing to Ohio State 45-21. The Owls think they are much better than they were then led by former Oklahoma QB Chris Robison who threw 28 touchdowns and just 6 interceptions.

The Owls of FAU need to use the clock to their advantage if they want to pull the almighty upset. The run game wasn’t amazing during FAU’s 11 win regular season but it’ll need to be efficient if the Owls want any hope of winning this game. FAU is led running back Malcolm Davidson who rushed for 700 yards during the regular season. The Owls backup running back Larry McCammon III showed flashes of good play running for 300 plus yards in limited time. Robison would like to set up the pass game through the run game to utilize his best offensive weapon in tight end and future Cleveland Brown Harrison Bryant. Bryant is easily the guy who scares Ohio State the most.

Defensively the Owls just hope they can contain Justin Fields and limit the run game from JK Dobbins. Linebacker Akileis Leroy is the Owls best defensive player and he’ll need to play the game of his life to keep this Buckeyes offense from rolling. Keep an eye on former Florida State cornerback Meiko Dotson who had 9 interceptions for the Owls this year. Dotson is capable of making big plays and FAU will certainly most likely need one if the upset is going to happen.

The Buckeyes are loaded with NFL players at pretty much every position. Justin Fields is arguably the best quarterback in all of college football and running back JK Dobbins is as good as they come as well. The backfield is the main issue of concern for FAU. Sure, Ohio State has talented wideouts but they go as the ground game goes. Look for a heavy dose of option read between Fields and Dobbins to get the Buckeyes rolling.

Defensively Ohio State is absolutely loaded with the best defensive player in all of america in DE Chase Young. Young is an absolute animal and FAU pretty much has no one who can stop him. I’d suspect a heavy dose of double or perhaps triple teams involving Young. Linebacker Malik Harrison is the best of the bunch and should make FAU QB Robison’s life a living hell because the Buckeyes will most likely man up with two of the best cornerbacks in all of college football with Jeff Okudah and Damon Arnette.

Prediction:

The Buckeyes won the first matchup by 24 but were up 28 after just one quarter. Sure, FAU has gotten better since then but the same argument could be made for OSU. Give me the Buckeyes minus the points in Columbus. I’ll ride with the under here as well as FAU won’t have enough offense to get rolling.

Colby Dant is a stand up comedian and The Sports Gambling Podcast's official college football and basketball expert. Unfortunately he's also a huge Jets fan.

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