Bundesliga Matchday 27 Best Bets

Bundesliga Matchday 27 Best Bets

Doesn’t it feel amazing to have live sports back? If Korean baseball or Russian Table Tennis haven’t piqued your interest, perhaps Bundesliga soccer will. BetQL’s premium sports betting data now features live Bundesliga odds, best bets from our model, public data and more. Here’s a sneak peek behind the paywall with three of the best bets to target in Matchday 27 action. If you are new to the Bundesliga and want to get caught up to speed you can read our article on How to pick a Bundesliga team to figure out which team fits you best. 

Moneyline: Borussia Mönchengladbach +141 vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen

This is undoubtedly the Bundesliga game of the week and our model is labeling Mönchengladbach as a +100 favorite, a 41-point difference from the consensus line. Therefore, they’re a three-star value bet on BetQL, while Leverkusen (+176) and the Draw (+271) don’t offer as much value. Mönchengladbach (16-4-6) is currently in third place on the Bundesliga table, while Leverkusen (15-5-6) check in fifth. The two sides are remarkably similar defensively, surrendering 31 goals apiece, which is tied for the second-fewest in the 18-team league. Further, Mönchengladbach has scored 52 goals, just three more than Leverkusen (49), good for fourth and fifth in the league, respectively. Although the home fans won’t be in attendance, Mönchengladbach has gone 9-1-2 at Borussia-Park this season and is clearly comfortable playing there, where they’ve scored 30 goals and surrendered just 16 for a +14 goal differential. Leverkusen has gone 8-1-4 in their road games, which is admirable, but has scored 24 goals and surrendered 18 for a +6 goal differential. The two sides are both talented and very similar, but Mönchengladbach has the edge at home. If you want to read our full Monchengladbach vs. Leverkusen prediction check out our match up page that has other premium data.  

Moneyline: TSG 1899 (+111) vs. SC Paderborn 07

Let’s put this into perspective for a second. Via MGM, Paderborn is a -3334 favorite to get relegated at the end of this season. The team with the next-highest odds is Werder at -250. Via BetQL’s Bundesliga Public Betting Dashboard, TSG 1899 (Hoffenheim) has attracted 60% of total three-way moneyline bets as of Friday, compared to Paderborn (+227) attracting just 37% and the Draw (+276) attracting 3%. Hoffenheim (10-5-11) hasn’t been impressive by any means, sitting in 9th place on the Bundesliga table with a -11 goal differential. However, Paderborn (4-5-17) has been hilariously awful, surrendering 54 goals and scoring just 30 of their own for a -24 goal differential. At home, they’ve struggled just as much as on the road as evidenced by their 2-1-10 record and -14 goal differential. Hoffenheim has gone a respectable 5-4-3 on the road and is one of the eight teams with a positive road goal differential (+4). 

Total: Eintracht Frankfurt vs. FC Bayern Munchen: OVER 3.5 

Let’s address the elephant in the room: betting soccer overs is never fun. However, the over is popping in our model and is labeled as a 4-star bet in this matchup. Bayern Munich is dominating the Bundesliga once again and they’ve scored a league-high 75 goals while allowing a league-low 26 goals. While Eintracht has netted just 39 goals, it’s tough to ignore the fact that Bayern has scored 2.88 goals per game this season and have scored four or more goals by themselves in half of their last eight matches. To put this into even more perspective, Bayern forward Robert Lewandowski has scored 26 goals this season. Only two players (him and RB Leipzig’s Timo Werner) in the entire Bundesliga have surpassed the 15-goal threshold. BetQL’s model loves the over, and Bayern’s ability to find the back of the net should be on full display yet again. 

If you want to read more about this upcoming week and want to see more Bundesliga predictions from BetQL, we have you covered. Every week we will be highlighting our favorite games and telling you how to best get an edge on the sportsbook. If you are new to sports betting check out these sportsbook promos to get free money to play with.

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