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Genesis Invitational Daily Fantasy Picks for Monkey Knife Fight (Round 1)

Genesis Invitational Daily Fantasy Picks for Monkey Knife Fight (Round 1)

Almost everyone is familiar with standard daily fantasy contests, but Monkey Knife Fight adds a whole different dimension to the game, especially for golf. It incorporates more of a player prop style where golfers have to hit over/unders on their performance in a round. Contestants will have to parlay together correct picks to win up to 1.5 times, 2.2 times or even up to 12 times their entry fee!

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More or Less (Prize 2.2x)

Rules: Hit both props to earn 2.2x entry fee

Target #1: Over/Under 4.5 Round 1 Birdies or Better for Brooks Koepka

Analysis: Brooks Koepka makes his first PGA Tour start since last fall where he missed the cut at the Shriners and withdrew from the CJ Cup when he re-injured his knee. He recently played over on the Middle Eastern swing on the European Tour and showed relatively ho-hum results.

There’s no denying Koepka’s talent and ability to rise to the occasion. It’s more of a question of if he’s going to be motivated and engaged to play. Some may point to the fact that he recently lost the World #1 Ranking as something he’ll use as a chip on his shoulder, but I don’t think he could care less about that distinction. In his mind it’s about glory in the majors only, and he doesn’t need some convoluted formula only understandable by quantum physics majors to prove to himself that he’s the big bad dog in the yard.

Between his indifference and the overall lackluster play since his injury I think he’ll get off to a sluggish start on a tough Riviera track. I’ll take Under 4.5 Birdies or Better on Thursday.

Target #2: Over/Under 68.5 1st Round Score for Justin Thomas

While Thomas is a player that gets off to fast starts, anyone who shoots 68 or better at Riviera has had a really good round. Riviera is a tough golf course with difficult to hit fairways and tricky firm and fast greens. In 16 career rounds he’s only had a round of 68 or better seven times, with three of those coming last year alone. His putter has also been a little up and down, so I say that comes back to bite him a bit and his 1st round score is Over 68.5.

Rapid Fire (Prize 2.2x)

Rules: Hit both matchup props to earn 2.2x entry fee

Match #1: More Round 1 Birdies or Better – Jon Rahm -0.5 over Rory McIlroy

Analysis: In 12 career rounds at Riviera, Rory has averaged 4.25 birdies or better. Coincidentally enough that’s the same clip that Rahm had in his lone start in this tournament in 2019. Rahm typically gets off to fast starts to his tournaments as his first round score is 69 since 2016. Rory’s average 1st round score since then is over a full shot higher as he has the stigma of being someone who backdoors into good finishes. That’s a good enough tie breaker for me to side with Rahm -0.5 birdies or better over McIlroy in Round 1.

Match #2: Justin Thomas 1st Round Score -0.5 over Brooks Koepka 1st Round Score

Analysis: This was mostly covered above, as while I thought the 68.5 target 1st round score for Justin Thomas was a little too high, it still should be able to best Koepka’s opening round score, which I expect to be sluggish. Take Thomas -0.5 as the final leg of this contest.

More or Less (Prize 2.2x)

Rules: Hit both props to earn 2.2x entry fee

Target #1: Over/Under 69.5 1st Round Score for Patrick Cantlay

Analysis: Cantlay played great in his last two starts at Riviera with a T15 finish last year and a T4 finish the year before that. He also got off to great starts in both tournaments. Cantlay shot 68 in his opening round last year and 66 in the opening round the year before that. He’s shot 69 or better in 10 of his last 20 rounds and comes into this tournament in good form. I like siding with Under 69.5 1st Round Score as the first leg of this contest.

Target #2: Over/Under 4.5 birdies or better for Justin Rose

Analysis: While Justin Rose is a player I think is a value at 40/1 to win the tournament, 4.5 birdies or better in one round at Riviera is a tall order for anyone. Justin Rose has 95 birdies or better in 26 rounds at Riviera since 2008, or only about 3.6 per round. This line is probably a little too high, so I’ll side with Under 4.5 Birdies or Better for Rose in Round 1.

Use promo code SGP and receive a $100 match bonus up to $100 at Monkey Knife Fight

Golf and NASCAR analyst for SportsGamblingPodcast.com. Hit him up on the SGP Slack Channel at SportsGamblingPodcast.Slack.com.

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