As I mentioned recently on NBA Odds Pod, Chris Giordani and I will be doing NBA Daily Fantasy Picks every weekday in December! Like all of our content on SportsGamblingPodcast.com, it will be completely free. No subscription needed!
I’m tackling the first week and then Chris and I will be alternating on some kind of schedule that we still need to figure out.
Feel free to hit me up @TheRyanMcKee to let me know what I’ve missed, what’s working, and what more you’d like read. Hit up Chris on Twitter @TopherSquints.
Studs
Giannis Antetokounmpo – SF/PF ($12,000)
The Greek Freak is the prohibitive favorite to win another MVP. He’s averaging 30.9 points, 13.4 rebounds and 5.9 assists per game. Sure, he’s by far the most-expensive player on today’s six-game slate, but that’s because he’s averaging 62.6 FPPG!
It doesn’t even matter that back soreness led to him playing a season-low 20 minutes on Saturday, he still scored 26 points and pulled down nine rebounds in a blowout over the Hornets. Well, get ready for another blowout tonight! The sad-sack Knicks travel to Milwaukee. They rank 26th in defending forwards like The Alphabet … even thought we know there’s no forwards like him.
Bite the bullet and spend up for Giannis.
Trae Young – PG ($10,500)
Things haven’t been so hot in Hotlanta. They’ve lost 10 in a row. Lucky for Hawks fans, Young is still on a mission to prove his team wasn’t completely idiotic in taking him over Luka Doncic. Rayford Young (did you know his first name is “Rayford”) has averaged 56.6 DraftKings points over his last five games, including a 47-point eruption versus Indiana (a top seven defense).
Tonight, Ice Trae (or Ice Ray?) is taking on the lowly Warriors. They’re a bottom-five defensive team and they’ll be without their scariest player … Draymond (Ice Dray) Green is likely out. His price tag is steep, but he will have ample opportunities to soar past the 5x mark in a game that boasts an over/under of 222.5.
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Values
T.J. Warren – SF/PF ($6,200)
The Pacers’ best “T.J.” …. Seriously, why are we talking more about the Pacers having three players named “T.J”? That means 1/5 of their roster is named T.J., though to be fair, if any team should have that many T.J.s – it should be Indiana.
Anyway, Best T.J. has looked like the scorer he always flirted with being on the Suns. He scored 29 points on Saturday against Philadelphia (38 DKFPs) and has at least 15 points in six of his past seven games. He’s averaging 27.2 DKFP in 33.5 minutes over his past seven contests. The Grizzlies are banged-up and have struggled to defend opposing forwards all season.
Bogdan Bogdanovic – SG/SF ($6,200)
Turning out to be the best-valued Bogdanovic. The Bulls continue to suck and Bogdan has been performing well … taking advantage of the extra shots since De’Aaron Fox has been injured. You could go Buddy Hield here at $7,100, but I like Best Bogdanovic for the lower price and lower potential ownership.
Aron Baynes – C ($5,400)
I won’t be paying up for any of the stud centers on today’s slate. That’s because Big Bad Bearded Baynes is back in the Suns’ lineup! Charlotte is giving up 58.1 DK points per game to opposing centers. That’s the third-highest point total across any position in the entire league.
While Australian Aron has been dealing with a hurt calf, he played 25 minutes on Friday and looked solid. He’s had a couple days rest and should play his normal 27-30 minutes here against a fast-paced team that loves to miss jumpers. That means lots of rebounds for the big man. Also, at 224.5 over/under, Suns/Hornets boasts the highest over/under total of any game on the slate.
Dillon Brooks – SG/SF ($5,200)
Lots of folks will see Ja Morant out and do the knee-jerk play of Tyus Jones ($5,600). That’s a fine play – but one that will come with a high ownership. Dillon Brooks, on the other hand, will be the underowned player that could!
On Sunday, Brooks dropped 26 points on 9-for-18 shooting, leading to 34.5 DK points. Sure, you don’t want any part of the Pacers defense, but this is too much upside to ignore at a fair price.
Robin Lopez – C ($4,400)
RoLo looked great filling in for his brother BroLo on Saturday, racking up 33.0 DKFP in 24 minutes. Right now, it looks like Brook Lopez is again doubtful to play, so we could see the lesser twin going full-out Sideshow Bob again. He started and played 30-plus minutes twice against the Knicks at the end of last season when he was with the Bulls and posted 42.25 DKFP and 21.25 DKFP. Plus, this could technically be a revenge game … but RoLo has been on so many teams … he might’ve already forgotten.
Punts
James Ennis – SF/PF ($3,800)
This will be the third straight game that Josh Richardson has missed. The first two, James Ennis saw 22 minutes and 27 minutes and scored 31.5 DKFP and 23.0 DKFP respectively. Let’s not overthink this one. This price is too low even against an elite Jazz defensive unit. Plug in Ennis and spend up in other areas.
Dennis Smith Jr. – PG ($3,200)
Franky Smokes is considered doubtful tonight and Elfrid Payton is still sidelined. That means DSJ should have the green-light to do what he does best … dominate the ball and jack-up plenty of shots. Last night against the Celtics, Smith finished with 32.75 DKFP on 17 points, seven assists, a rebound and two blocked shots in 38 minutes. Who knows what Fizdale is doing with these Knicks? But if DSJ is his only option due to injury, he has to like him do his thing.
