For those who missed it, please check out the 2019 RSM Classic Preview and Betting Strategies column for information about what types of golfers to target this week for your props, futures bets and DFS Lineups.
With that in mind, here’s who I like this week at Sea Island (with odds courtesy of mybookie.ag):
Harris English – 28/1: Part of me feels like the bottom is going to fall out for Harris soon, but the results are so tough to ignore and the 28/1 futures price is alluring given the career resurgence. While his hot form is surprising, if you were to tell me back in 2012 that English would be putting up results like this on a weekly basis, I wouldn’t bat an eye. He always had a ton of raw talent, but like so many others his career went sideways for whatever reason. All parts of his game are clicking, and maybe this is the week he caps off another stellar performance with the trophy.
Alex Noren – 28/1: I would not recommend using Noren in DFS, on placement props or in matchup props because he’s a far cry from the form he showed from 2017 and 2018. But he’s played better over the last couple months, as he’s been at least making weekends and posting respectable finishes on the leaderboard. Noren now goes to a golf course that’s similar to ones he’s had success at in the past. Noren does well at places that doesn’t ask him to hit a lot of drivers, forces players to keep shots in the fairway and make a lot of putts. At his best, there’s only a handful of golfers who can match him in terms of talent, so if he does find his apex there’s not many options out there who could beat him.
Adam Hadwin – 35/1: Hadwin had a pretty rough stretch over in Asia, but before that he posted consecutive Top 5 finishes at the Safeway Open and the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open. He returns stateside against a weak field and a place that stresses the importance of good putting and accuracy – two of the biggest strengths of his game. I like Hadwin’s odds to notch his second PGA Tour victory of his career.
Denny McCarthy – 55/1: Last week’s T48 finish at the Mayakoba was a little bit of a disappointing finish for McCarthy given the success he’s had this fall. The issue for him last week was he wasn’t hitting as many greens in regulation as he had been this fall, and he only was about field average in putting at El Camaleon. I think those are going to bounce back for him a bit this week and put him right back in contention on the weekend. If so, his 55/1 price tag is a nice flyer to have on him.
Matt Kuchar +2.5 Strokes over Webb Simpson (EVEN): Everyone loves Webb Simpson this week, hell even I like him a lot and can see him winning. He has a great track record there, and he’s played great golf over the last few months. But is he really 2.5 strokes better than Kuchar before a tournament has even started, much less forcing bettors to pay juice to lay that side? I’m fully aware that the second half of 2019 has been mediocre for Kuchar, and that (surprisingly) his track record at Sea Island isn’t all that great. But the line on this prop seems off, especially considering Webb Simpson is coming off a long layoff and hasn’t played a competitive round in almost a month and a half. Despite the so-so results at Sea Island, it’s still a golf course that should elevate the strength’s of Kuchar’s game. I like getting 2.5 strokes on Webb head-to-head this week.
Nick Taylor over Si Woo Kim (-125): Taylor is a player I discussed in the DFS column who I liked this week. As for Si Woo Kim, while it seems like I get burned every time I fade him, a golf course that places an emphasis on accurate ball striking and good putting isn’t up his alley with the form he has displayed. Si Woo hasn’t been able to finish inside the Top 30 in either driving accuracy or greens in regulation % in any of his last 5 tournaments, and his strokes gained statistics so far this year are less than stellar. Sure he could regress to the mean, but that mean hasn’t really been all that great over the last year anyways. I’m backing the better ball striker and putter at the moment head to head.
Charles Howell III over Kevin Kisner (-140): Maybe my exit off the Kisner Bandwagon is what it’ll take to wake his game up. I’ve had enough. There’s no strokes gained statistics to look at, but examining the more rudimentary data in ball striking and putting shows a lot of big problems for Kisner right now. He’s a popular pick this week because he’s never recorded a round with negative strokes gained in six years at Sea Island, but just because a player has good vibes on a golf course doesn’t mean it’ll cure all ails. Meanwhile, Charles Howell III has a great track record at Sea Island and is playing solid right now, so he’s the one I’d back head-to-head.