Happy Monday y’all, and here’s to another hopefully profitable week 7. I’m going to be changing the format to include five props + 1st TD scorers, so enjoy the bonus prop! This week on Monday Night Football, the nation gets the gift of Jets vs. Pats and of course, Booger McFarland. Can Sam Darnold back up his talk of the Patriots defense being “not unbeatable”? Will Tom Brady continue to look like the cliff is near and sit on the shoulders of his very elite defense?
For now, let’s dive into the matchup and identify inefficiencies in the market to get you paid on some Monday Night Football prop bets. For more in-depth analysis, listen to the Week 7 Picks Podcast below.
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Season record: 17-18 (-.8u)
Monday Night Football Game Info
Time: Monday, October 21st @ 5:20 PM Pacific
Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Weather: 57f and partly cloudy
Spread: Patriots -9.5
Odds courtesy of MyBookie.ag *Promo Code SGP*
Monday Night Football Prop Bets
1. Jamison Crowder Over 4.5 Receptions (-105) & 2. Over 47.5 receiving yards (-110)
In the two games that Crowder has played with Darnold, he has received 26 targets for 20 receptions and 197 yards. With All-World defensive back Stephon Gilmore most likely to have Robby Anderson in his sights on Monday Night Football, I expect Crowder to be involved regardless of game script. Go for the double-dip and enjoy double the profits.
3. Julian Edelman Over 5.5 Receptions (-150)
Yes, we are paying some extra juice here, but Edelman has only failed to go over a total of 5.5 receptions twice this year, in a blow out win against the Dolphins and in a very competitive game vs. the Bill. With Gordon out, I expect TB12 to look for Edelman early and often as I expect the Patriots to attack the Jets through the air.
4. Robby Anderson Under 48.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
For the same reasons I highlighted in the Crowder section, Anderson will get a heavy dose of Stephon Gilmore, who, along with his defensive teammates in New England, has been the best in the league against the deep ball to the tune of a ridiculous -79.3% DVOA. I don’t expect many targets going Anderson’s way, and at this price, the under is a great value.
5. Tom Brady Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-160)
Again paying up for this one but with the strength of the Jets defense coming against the run (5th in Adj Line Yards), this has “short passing” clinic written all over it. Look for the Pats to attack via the air when they get to the red zone and enjoy this obvious over play.
6. 1st TD’s (.25 u each)
I’m going to roll with red-zone target leaders for the Patriots, James White(8) & Julian Edelman(6), as the Jets showed last week, the can be tough to run against in short yardage. As for the Jets, give me Le’veon Bell and Jamison Crowder as I expect them to carry a large bulk of the offensive burden.
- James White +800
- Julian Edelman +800
- Le’veon Bell +700
- Jamison Crowder +1600
Good luck and Let It Ride!