Happy Monday, and here’s to the Jets and Sam Darnold for saving the weekend for me and cashing my +280 dog (and beating the Cowboys!). On to Monday Night Football this week, which brings us a critical NFC North showdown. Can Matt Stafford buck the trend of him not showing up in primetime spots vs. winning teams? Will the Packers continue to succeed in a balanced fashion? Most importantly, will ESPN finally fire Booger and replace him with Boomer?
For now, let’s dive into the matchup and identify inefficiencies in the market to get you paid on some Monday Night Football prop bets. For more in-depth analysis, listen to the Week 6 Picks Podcast below.
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Season record: 16-14 (+1.5u)
Monday Night Football Game Info
Time: Monday, October 14th @ 5:20 PM Pacific
Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
Weather: 42f and clear
Spread: Packers -3.5
Odds courtesy of MyBookie.ag *Promo Code SGP*
Monday Night Football Prop Bets
1. Jimmy Graham Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-110) & 2. Score a TD (+200)
This is by far the best matchup he has had all year against Detroit who is #28 in DVOA against the TE. While there has been an expectation that Allison and MVS would step up in the void created by Adams, I expect this week matchup to dictate that void being filled by Graham especially in the red zone making any time TD +200 a great value.
3. Kerryon Johnson Over 69.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
His usage continues to go up as you would expect in a Matt Patricia offense. Meanwhile, the Packers have averaged giving up 23 carries for 121 yards against opposing running backs good for #28 DVOA against the run. I expect this game to remain competitive and thus keep Johnson in the game script throughout.
4. Kenny Golladay Under 71.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
He has only gotten over this total in 1 of his games thus far this year and the Packers are currently #5 DVOA against the pass. While I think he could potentially find the end zone again for the 5th time, I don’t think he racks up the yardage.
5. 1st TD’s (.25 u each)
I’m going to roll with both RB’s as both teams struggle to stop the run, plus the TEs who are both are tied for their teams lead in Red Zone targets (Davante Adams leads the Packers but is out).
- Aaron Jones +500
- Kerryon Johnson +800
- Jimmy Graham +1200
- TJ Hockenson +1200
Good luck and Let it Ride!