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NFL Football Week 6 Daily Fantasy Picks For DraftKings, FanDuel [UPDATED SAT, 10/12] (Sunday, October 13th)

NFL Football Week 6 Daily Fantasy Picks For DraftKings, FanDuel (Sunday, October 13th)

I absolutely love it in life when two opposite-ended extremes are able to coincide and put their differences aside for a greater good. And it appears in this Week 6 of NFL Daily Fantasy that there also could be a strategic opportunity for such a rarity to transpire (except with your roster construction, instead of something like politics). The only iffy question about it is the one extreme it happens to entertain to do so.

Faced with two games on Sunday’s Main slate that resemble each other about as much as a Big Mac is comparable to a Kobe beef burger at Ruth’s Chris, the ability to afford pieces in the Texans/Chiefs presumable shootout could depend on the number of cringe-worthy activity you involve yourself in with the Redskins/Dolphins matchup.

And while I happen to be the contrarian DFS player at heart, through and through, it’s not simply that element which intrigues me about the dumpster fire battle between Washington and Miami, but the outright ability for that game to blow wide open with bad defenses being exposed for four quarters at the hands of sloppy offenses slinging it around the field. Not to mention, special teams blunders resulting in DST points as well.

Considering the matchups over all ten games this week are rather lackluster on the surface, there’s a silver lining to rostering pieces from most any of the matches on this slate’s offering. Naturally, however, the challenge remains as to which pieces to roll the dice on in order to spend up everywhere else. Let’s dig a bit deeper.

The Gameplan

Although I admittedly often try to stray away from heavy chalk if possible, I’m also an open advocate of hammering [what will appear to be] good chalk when it presents itself (despite the appearance of heavy ownership getting in the way of that better judgment at times).

I understand there are some people who scoff at the idea of narratives coming into play involving outcomes on the field (or court, or what have you). However, I happen to be a massive proponent of them for a variety of reasons, but namely because they have such an impact which cannot be quantified, and therefore nobody can truly measure it by any statistical gauge or barometer. It’s just a factor that is simply there, while any suggested determination of how “much” they [narratives] are/were of impact is all subjective.

With that said, Patrick Mahomes is back home at Arrowhead this week to take on the Texans following a bizarro loss for he and the Kansas City Chiefs to the rush-heavy Colts, who smashed the rock all over their yard for 180 rushing yards and over 37 minutes of possession. While Mahomes still threw for over 300 yards, he only compiled one touchdown; a red zone pass play to Byron Pringle. I have no doubt in my mind that Mahomes is going to bounce back in this game, and what better reason than a rebound narrative and a return for Tyreek Hill?

As you and I both know, both sides of this game will be littered with ownership. But I believe the totals will be soaring, and having the full game-stack with pieces from the Texans is highly advised, and it may take some key affordable parts from games like the grease fire in Miami to do so.

In order to get to different variations of said HOU/KC game stacks, I plan to stack in a three-pronged approach:

One way will be to get to one of either Mahomes or Deshaun Watson, along with a full game-stack of players (ie: game-stack the hell out of it). This would consist of any of the starting Texan/Chiefs running backs or receivers, all the way to Keke Coutee.

Another stack approach is to stack one of the running backs in either Carlos Hyde, Duke Johnson, or Damien Williams or LeSean McCoy, with a receiver from both sides and pieces of the Dolphins and Redskins to make it gel financially (This game offers an odd sort of upside considering the other dudly matchups on the slate).

Finally, you can elect to get one-offs from this game, but I would run it back with an offensive member from the opposite side of the ball to add differentiation to your rosters. With that, you can personally decide if Washington and Miami is something you’re able to commit your pride to. Normally I wouldn’t advocate players from such a shitfest but the key to unlocking this slate may very well stem from that game given the ridiculous pricing (and both teams are awful defensively too). The highest-owned player from either side seems to be the Dolphins DST, which is between 5-10% suggested everywhere. Much can be exposed of this.

This strategy isn’t for the faint of heart but if it is in fact beneath your pay grade respectfully (and also only recommended for GPP entries), then there’s other value to be had out there in pairing with the high-octane Houston/KC members. It’s just very affordable and has the higher potential to score significant fantasy points that players priced from other games around it.

UPDATE, SATURDAY 10/12:

With a variety of top-tier players popping up on the injury report throughout the rest of the week (running backs in particular), I’ve noticed a tendency of the field to latch onto some affordable options as backup starters and forcing them into rosters regardless of their matchups (see: Malcolm Brown). At the same time as I’m the nutjob advocating plays from the Redskins/Dolphins debauchery, this would also be the same reasoning used to stray away from a couple of those injury-filler dart throws:  Matchups.

While I’m not going to sit here and tell you not to play guys like Brown (because I will certainly be getting to him as well in my slew of entries), my point here is to be very mindful of anything else you’d normally be paying attention to while constructing your rosters when pivoting to knee-jerk reactionary moves like backups filling in for full-time roles. A number of entrants let this cognizance escape them when editing, say, a handful of hopeful lineups for the umpteenth time during later in the week. This being after information inundation for over 72 hours, and allowing reasoning to dissipate as said injury updates are released, inevitably stuffing in far more than the field’s ownership of a guy like Rashaad Penny across six of ten entries (all over a questionable tag to Chris Carson mid-week that hadn’t done more than present the visually lingering ‘Q’ and has since shifted to Penny).

With that said, it’s simply a fair warning to be heeded when dealing with late-week injury designation assumptions, especially considering I do figure a large number of you are hand-building your rosters (as opposed to using optimizers) where keeping track of your player pool is a bit more challenging with multiple entries, thus exposures can be unintentionally heavier on certain plays as you progress with filling them out over a five-day span.

…and speaking of backups, Washington appears to have nobody they’re too confident in at quarterback, as interim coach Bill Callahan shifted from Colt McCoy to Case Keenum just shortly after this article was first published on Wednesday this week (naturally), while expressing earlier suggestion of Dwayne Haskins getting a chance on Sunday against the Dolphins. This makes my advocacy toward this specific approach much more hesitant, and I recommend if you are indeed following me off that cliff, I would keep the exposure to Keenum at a minimum (if any at all). There’s no telling how short his leash is, but I don’t mind getting to any of the other Washington weapons against the Dolphins as salary relief to afford stacks of Texans/Chiefs and Falcons/Cardnials.

As for the Dolphins side of that strategy (which is terrifying to say the very least), I may just be ever-so slightly more liberal with my exposure to Josh Rosen, but with the same thought process involved with ownership to Miami receivers and backs as applied to that of the Redskins exposure you [may] get. Don’t be frivolous, but don’t be as fearful as other weeks. This is a dumpster fire of a game featuring no wins on either side of the field in Week 6, that may also end up in a defensive standoff…but that’s to suggest those are two good/decent defenses, which they are far from the breath of being these days.

There should be scoring, and with a Vegas over/under of 42 [at the moment], it could obviously slide either way. Obviously the Dolphins and Redskins DSTs are both in play here, and I will consider getting to them in most rosters I have no exposure to the offensive sides of the opposition on. Kickoff returns and/or turnovers for TD’s can happen plenty in this circus of a game as well, which makes exposure there every bit as the same-minded exposure to the offensive side of the ball. Please just know what you’re getting into when going this route, and I would use further caution when rostering for Cash Games here (outside of Adrian Peterson, who is a great Cash Game play).

Keep an eye on Alvin Kamara, as he’s now a game-time decision and didn’t practice Friday with an ankle injury. While I did just recommend being mindful of how much exposure to backups you end up with, Latavius Murray would in fact have an excellent matchup against the Jaguars defense, who’s ranked dead last against the rush per Football Outsiders DVOA Rankings. It’s the matchup that is a convincing factor to be overweight on either back who ends up starting here, but Murray may vulture work regardless due to the potential significance of Kamara’s injury.

Best of luck this weekend, and hope to see you at the top.

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes, KC ($7,500 DK/$9,200 FD)

Consideration: GPP (All Entry Field Sizes)

I know, CHALK! How dare I? Well I think the reasoning speaks for itself, and with a potentially returning Tyreek Hill making for even more of the suggested narrative I would buy into that I’d mentioned earlier, Patrick Mahomes is in a position to make good on his subpar surprise outing against Indy last weekend.

Weeks like Mahomes had against the Lions and Colts were bound to come someday and on a rare occasion, but he still amassed over 315 yards in every game this season and the Texans secondary is a shaky one sitting in the middle of the pack in Football Outsiders’ DVOA rankings (15th) and has given up the league sixth-most in passing yards to this point in 2019 (1,352 yards).

While the price tag is sky high as always, Mahomes is in a fantastic spot to bounce back with a ceiling we all are aware has a very high potential that can be record-breaking on any given week. A redemption spot at home seems fitting for Pat Mahomes.

Kyler Murray, ARI ($6,500 DK/$7,700 FD)

Consideration: Cash Games, GPP (All Entry Field Sizes)

Flying under the radar to some degree with his quiet-mannered style of play, Kyler Murray is actually averaging 21.5 DraftKings Fantasy Points per game thus far this season. And given a matchup at home with the dreadful Atlanta Falcons pass defense who just gave up five touchdowns through the air to the Texans, Murray makes for a fantastic Cash Game play that works just fine in GPP’s as well given the ceiling that can be reached against this Falcons secondary.

Murray also may be leaned even heavier on this week should running back David Johnson miss time due to an injury sustained during their matchup with the Bengals last Sunday. But from the looks of it that shouldn’t be a problem for Murray, who is averaging 40 pass attempts per game, which is even more than that of the forementioned Mahomes this season. He’s also the second-highest rushing quarterback on the year at 206 yards, second to only Lamar Jackson.

Murray has yet to play a game without David Johnson this season, and I’m thinking the fantasy production appears in his favor even more so if he happens to do so. This Falcons defensive unit is a fairly universally awful one, given up the second-most points per game on the season at 30.4. Potentially getting Christian Kirk back in the receiving corps will certainly prove helpful as well. I will be getting to more than the field on Kyler Murray this week against Atlanta.

Other Cash Game QB Considerations:
Russell Wilson, SEA ($6,600 DK/$8,000 FD)
Deshaun Watson, HOU ($6,700 DK/$8,400 FD)
Matt Ryan, ATL ($6,400 DK/$8,100 FD)
Gardner Minshew, JAC ($5,000 DK/$6,900 FD)

Other GPP QB Considerations:
Dak Prescott, DAL ($6,200 DK/$8,000 FD)
Jimmy Garoppolo, SF ($5,700 DK/$7,200 FD)
Lamar Jackson, BAL ($6,900 DK/$8,200 FD)
Teddy Bridgewater, NO ($5,300 DK/$7,300 FD)

LONGSHOT GPP QB:
Colt McCoy ($4,800 DK/$6,800 FD)
Case Keenum, WAS ($5,000 DK/$6,500 FD)
Josh Rosen, MIA ($4,500 DK/$6,400 FD)

Running Back

Mark Ingram II, BAL ($6,600 DK/$7,500 FD)

Consideration: Cash Games, GPP (All Entry Field Sizes)

While we would all care to erase last week’s performance out of our brain stems, given the ceiling we’ve gotten out of him in previous games this year, Mark Ingram is an extremely forgivable fantasy player otherwise. Posting the 8th-highest DKFP per game on running backs for the season at 19.2 DKFP an outing, Ingram couldn’t be in a much better spot to bounce right back to stud-dom (that sounds horrible).

Don’t look now, but right behind Aaron Jones, and actually tied for second-most rushing touchdowns on the season with Christian McCaffrey, is Mr. Ingram at six total scores on the ground and facing an abysmal Cincinnati Bengals rush defense ranking 26th overall as a whole against running backs on the year (per Football Outsiders’ DVOA Rankings), and who has allowed the second-most yards per game to the rush in 2019 as well (167.6 yards per game).

With the Bengals allowing the second-most scores to the run throughout the year on average at 1.4 touchdowns per game, Ingram appears to be getting his Christmas in October come Sunday. Mark Ingram will likely be among my two highest-owned at the RB position on both DraftKings and FanDuel this weekend.

Alvin Kamara, NO ($8,000 DK/$7,900 FD)

Consideration: Cash Games, GPP (All Entry Field Sizes)

With Teddy Bridgewater stealing much of the spotlight for the New Orleans offense since the injury departure of Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara has sort of been a blip on the radar in terms of discussion regarding recent fantasy production. And despite facing some stiff competition against higher-ranked defenses against the RB position, Kamara has managed to average 18.23 DraftKings Fantasy Points per game since Brees left the field in Week 2. He is dominating the carries out of the Saints backfield (rendering Latavius Murray useless) at 75.76% of the carries on the season and has one hell of a juicy matchup for Week 6 in Jacksonville.

The Jaguars rush defense is going to spell nothing but a wide open door for Kamara this weekend, ranking 25th overall in the league in rushing yards allowed per game at 136.6, and ranks dead last in the Football Outsiders’ DVOA Weighted Rankings. And it doesn’t end there! They’re also ranked 25th overall against running backs in the passing game as well, which for a dude like Kamara only bumps the ceiling even higher considering he’s the second-highest targeted player in the receiving game for the Saints offense with 31 total targets in 2019 (Michael Thomas leads NO with 55). They just gave up a whopping 285 yards on the ground to the Panthers rushing game (not just McCaffrey) and Kamara’s versatility in both facets of the offense bodes well against the holes in this Jags suspect defense.

Considering he’s not even close to the chalkiest player for the week, but also isn’t even the chalkiest running back in this game by itself, speaks volumes about how quietly he’s been treading along the past four weeks. Alvin Kamara is going to be among one of the other top-owned backs along with Ingram across my roster construction on all sites.

Other Cash Game RB Considerations:
Chris Carson, SEA ($6,000 DK/$7,200 FD)
Derrick Henry, TEN ($6,100 DK/$6,700 FD)
Nick Chubb, CLE ($7,300 DK/$7,800 FD)
Carlos Hyde, HOU ($4,400 DK/$6,000 FD)
Devonta Freeman, ATL ($5,800 DK/$6,600 FD)
Ezekiel Elliott, DAL ($8,500 DK/$8,500 FD)

Other GPP QB Considerations:
LeVeon Bell, NYJ ($6,400 DK/$6,800 FD)
Damien Williams, KC ($5,700 DK/$6,600 FD)
Chris Thompson, WAS ($5,000 DK/$5,400 FD)
Duke Johnson, HOU ($4,100 DK/$5,300 FD)
Adrian Peterson, WAS ($4,500 DK/$5,300 FD)
Tevin Coleman, SF ($4,400 DK/$5,000 FD)
Ito Smith, ATL ($4,300 DK/$5,000 FD)

LONGSHOT GPP RB:
Kenyan Drake, MIA ($4,400 DK/$5,600 FD)

Wide Receiver

D.J. Chark, JAC ($5,500 DK/$6,500 FD)

Consideration: Cash Games, GPP (All Entry Field Sizes)

With Jaguars rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew taking the sports world by storm since his abrupt ushering into the league, D.J. Chark has also filled similar shoes in his sophomore campaign while dazzling the unsuspecting masses as one of the top surprises of the 2019 NFL season.

Tied for a team-high 37 targets with Dede Westbrook, it’s deceiving at first glance to even remotely believe that the two are on the same echelon of productivity to this point all year. Because there’s a massive difference between ranking in the Top 5 DraftKings Wide Receivers all season (Chark), in stark contrast to squeezing into the top 45 at the position (Westbrook), which by totals is a nearly 50 fantasy point difference for 2019. The efficiency gap is quite significant when comparing the two.

Facing a New Orleans secondary who has been mediocre at best all season, Chark can knock the hinges off this group of defenders in the Saints secondary who rank 19th overall in receiving yards allowed all year, and rank 20th overall against the pass per Football Outsiders’ DVOA weighted rankings.

Chark is looking to fly under everyone’s radars once again (and how, I have no idea), and should be very easily achievable to best the field in aggregate ownership. Gitcha some D.J Chark.

Tyreek Hill, KC ($6,900 DK/$7,400 FD)

Consideration: GPP (Mid- Large Field Entry Sizes)

Is it about to be Tyreek Week?! Will we finally get what we have been waiting eagerly for since the early exit in Week 1? Given the narrative (yes) that I more than alluded to earlier, I believe the looming return of Tyreek Hill plays right into the scope of how we’d like to see that game play out on paper.

In case you need to be reminded of what Tyreek Hill brings to the table, fear not: he scored 352 DraftKings Fantasy Points in 2018 as the third-highest scoring at the Wide Receiver position in his 16 games played, amounting to 87 receptions on 137 targets, 1,479 receiving yards and twelve touchdowns, while also rushing his freakishly athletic self for 151 yards on 22 carries and a rushing touchdown to boot.

This Texans defense ranks middle of the pack against the pass per Football Outsiders DVOA Rankings (15th), and as well as 25th overall in total receiving yards allowed per game with 270.4. They’re also sitting middle of the pack against the #1 WR per their Defense Vs. Receiver rankings as an added bonus. I think should he play, Mahomes will get him the ball early and often after missing him for essentially the entire season to this point. The uncertainties of his recovery from his injured clavicle make him a GPP-recommended play, but if he’s cleared to go 100% I wouldn’t mind him in Cash Games either (despite the risk).

Other Cash Game WR Considerations:
Tyler Boyd, CIN ($6,300 DK/$6,400 FD)
DeAndre Hopkins, HOU ($7,400 DK/$8,400 FD)
Larry Fitzgerald, ARI ($6,100 Dk/$5,600 FD)
Adam Thielen, MIN ($6,700 DK/$7,200 FD)
Cooper Kupp, LAR ($7,100 DK/$7,800 FD)
Michael Thomas, NO ($7,800 DK/$8,200 FD)
Tyler Lockett, SEA ($6,400 DK/$6,300 FD)

Other GPP WR Considerations:
Julio Jones, ATL ($8,000 DK/$8,500 FD)
Amari Cooper, DAL ($7,000 DK/$8,100 FD)
Terry McLaurin, WAS ($6,000 DK/$6,400 FD)
Will Fuller, HOU ($6,000 DK/$6,600 FD)
Demarcus Robinson, KC ($5,900 DK/$6,700 FD)
Marquise Brown, BAL ($6,200 DK/$5,800 FD)
Preston Williams, MIA ($4,100 DK/$5,600 FD)
Keke Coutee, HOU ($3,500 DK/$4,900 FD)
Paul Richardson Jr, WAS ($4,900 DK/$4,700 FD)

LONGSHOT GPP WR:
Devante Parker, MIA ($4,200 DK/$5,400 FD)

Tight End

Noah Fant, DEN ($2,900 DK/$4,500 FD)

Consideration: GPP (All Entry Field Sizes)

I know you may be skeptic on all the Washington/Miami clownery I have been throwing about frivolously, but there is other affordable value to be had on this slate as well (if you haven’t noticed the slightly longer lists per position this week). And given a weaker matchup in defense of the tight end position, I believe Noah Fant stands in a great place and has a salary that can be paid off with ease (a matter of a couple solid catches honestly).

While this Tennessee Titans defense has looked rather convincing over the past couple of weeks or so, they currently rank 27th against tight ends in 2019 (Footballl Outsiders’ weighted DVOA), as they’ve surrendered an average of 53.7 yards and 7.9 pass attempts to the position per game. And in an offense where aside from Joe Flacco, Emmanuel Sanders, Courtland Sutton, and the O-line, Fant has been the most involved in the Broncos offense per total snap count percentage at 69.3%.

Noah Fant is dirt cheap and has proven he can score in this offense, along with the fact that Flacco loves throwing to his tight ends. Roster away.

Hayden Hurst, BAL ($3,200 DK/$4,400 FD)

Consideration: Cash Games, GPP (All Entry Field Sizes)

I must appear to be off my damn rocker this week with all the dumpster diving I’m seeming to manage here, but I beg you to hear me out on this one. With Mark Andrews looking most likely sidelined for this week due to a lingering foot injury, Hayden Hurst leaps up the depth chart to TE1 for the Ravens and has been the other third-highest targeted member of this Baltimore receiving group, tied with Willie Snead at 16 total targets for 2019.

If I need to remind you, the Ravens are hosting the God-forsakenly awful Bengals this Sunday, who rank 30th overall against tight ends and are surrendering an average of 42.8 yards and 3.8 targets per game to the position. Much like Noah Fant, it doesn’t get much cheaper than this and, in Hurst’s case, provides a rather solid floor as well which is what deems him a Cash Game worthy selection as a bonus.

The tight ends this week outside of Travis Kelce are rather ho-hum, so I would take the savings and run with Hayden Hurst in several of my rosters.

Other Cash Game TE Considerations:
Will Dissly, SEA ($4,900 DK/$6,000 FD)
Austin Hooper, ATL ($5,000 DK/$6,400 FD)
George Kittle, SF ($5,200 DK/$6,500 FD)
Jared Cook, NO ($3,400 DK/$5,600 FD)

Other GPP Tight End Considerations:
Travis Kelce, KC ($7,000 DK/$7,500 FD)
Mike Gesicki, MIA ($2,700 DK/$4,600 FD)
Chris Herndon, NYJ ($3,500 DK/$5,400 FD)
Ricky Seals-Jones, CLE ($3,300 DK/$5,500 FD)
Tyler Eifert, CIN ($3,500 DK/$4,500 FD)

LONGSHOT GPP TE:
Geoff Swaim, JAC ($2,900 DK/$4,200 FD)
Jeremy Sprinkle, WAS ($2,600 DK/$4,500 FD)

Defense/Special Teams

Cash Game DSTs:
Broncos ($3,100 DK/$4,500 FD)
Titans ($2,900 DK/$4,700 FD)
Ravens ($4,100 DK/$5,000 FD)
Niners ($2,700 DK/$3,500 FD)
Cowboys ($4,300 DK/$5,000 FD)

GPP DSTs:
Eagles ($3,000 DK/$4,500 FD)
Redskins ($3,200 DK/$4,200 FD)
Dolphins ($2,700 DK/$3,700 FD)
Vikings ($2,600 DK/$3,600 FD)

LONGSHOT GPP DST:
Chiefs ($2,500 DK/$3,400 FD)

Chris "Topher" Giordani is a sports gambling nerd who derives his passion for such from a number of avenues, particularly the ilk of fantasy sports.Currently working and residing in Orange County, California, daily fantasy sports consume a vast majority of his attention span on any given day. Reviving his sports rant podcast in 2019. #FadeTheChalk

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