This is a rematch of last year’s AFC Divisional Round playoff game where the Chiefs won 31-13 at Arrowhead. A lot has changed since that game with retirements and injuries to both teams. Andrew Luck has retired and the Colts will also be without starters Malik Hooker and Darius Leonard on Sunday. Two of their top offensive weapons T.Y. Hilton and Marlon Mack are also questionable and did not practice much this week. Kansas City will be without Eric Fisher and Tyreek Hill. Late in the week, Sammy Watkins also landed on the injury report and is questionable with a hamstring injury. Even with injuries, this should be an interesting game between two potential playoff teams. Also, anytime Patrick Mahomes plays in primetime it’s must see television. Below are my top prop bets for the game Sunday Night.
Indianapolis Colts Over 2.5 Touchdowns (-105)
The Colts have a ton of injuries, but I still think they can score three touchdowns on Sunday night. I believe T.Y. Hilton and Marlon Mack will play due to the importance of the game. Indianapolis needs to bounce back after a surprising loss to Oakland last Sunday. Even if Hilton and Mack are unable to play, I believe head coach Frank Reich will be able to create enough mismatches to move the ball efficiently. The Colts have a bye next week, and they need to get healthy quick in an ultra competitive AFC South.
Jacoby Brissett Over 245.5 Passing Yards (-113)
The Colts will try and run the ball and control the clock which may work for awhile, but eventually they are going to need to throw to keep pace with Kansas City. The Chiefs have scored at least 28 points in every game this season and that trend should continue. Brissett has 10 touchdowns and only two interceptions this season and is averaging over 287 yards passing over the past two games.
Travis Kelce First Touchdown Scored (+550)
I’m going to take a shot on Kelce to score the first touchdown Sunday night. With Tyreek Hill out and Sammy Watkins potentially limited due to injury, Kelce should be targeted early and often by Mahomes. He is averaging over eight targets a game and already has 24 catches and 369 yards in four games. The Colts will be without their starting safeties which should give Kelce room to maneuver in the middle of the field and in the red zone.
Patrick Mahomes Under 27.5 Completions (-113)
Patrick Mahomes has averaged 26 completions per game, but this Sunday could be down two of his top targets. Mahomes has been incredible with 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions. The Colts are banged up on both sides of the ball and will want to shorten the game and limit the amount of Kansas City possessions. At this point in his career, the only way to contain Mahomes is to keep him on the sideline.