Happy Monday everybody and here’s to hoping you weren’t putting all your money on the what could go wrong teaser featuring the Ravens & Colts. Monday Night Football these week features another gem for the steller ESPN crew to call as the Steelers & Bengals bring their combined 0 wins to the national stage. Can the Steelers get off the Schneid and overcome the loss of Big Ben? Will the Bengals change their current trajectory and avoid being in the coach/QB market by week 12?
For now, let’s dive into the matchup and identify inefficiencies in the prop market to get you paid on Monday Night Football. For more in-depth analysis, listen to the Week 4 Picks Podcast below.
Season record: 11-9 (+1.5u)
Monday Night Football Game Info
Time: Monday, September 30th @ 5:20 PM Pacific
Location: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA
Weather: 76f and clear
Spread: Steelers -3.5
Odds courtesy of MyBookie.ag
Monday Night Football Prop Bets
1. Joe Mixon Over 2.5 Receptions (-105) & 2. Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The Bengals have spoken about how they need to get Mixon going. In walk the Steelers defense who has given up 22 receptions (on 30 targets) for 210 yards in 3 games to the running back position. Combine this with the natural buy low position for Mixon props, and I am shoving to the middle of the table and double-dipping.
3. James Connor Over 69.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
The Bengals defense has looked like trash since week one where they almost stole on in Seattle. Specifically, they currently sit at #28 in defensive line yards. If we then look at the Steelers will be looking to do as they build up the confidence for 2nd year QB Mason Rudolph, it all points towards Connor getting the bulk of the work. Grab the low number and look for a game flow that allows the Steelers to eat clock on the back on Mr. Connor.
4. Mason Rudolph Under 242.5 Passing Yards (-115)
For the same reasons I list above I don’t believe Rudolph is currently at a level to be leaned on to win a game. Working off a minimal sample size Rudolph doesn’t seem capable of reaching this total unless the Bengals get up big fast (Which we all know is a bat shit crazy position to take). Grab the correlated under to Connor’s rushing over.
5. 1st TD’s (.25 u each)
I’m going to roll with both RB’s plus Diontae Johnson & Tyler Eifert who both are tied for their teams lead in Red Zone targets with 2.
- James Connor +600
- Joe Mixon +700
- Diontae Johnson +1600
- Tyler Eifert +1600
Good luck and Let it Ride!!!