With this being the week of Super Bowl 53, I thought it would be festive to keep the Super Bowl theme alive for the secondary market investments this week.
Something that makes secondary market buying and selling unique and exciting is the fact that the markets are always open. There isn’t a book in person or online that will offer current futures during an event. During the Conference Championship games, buyers and sellers were making transactions on Conference and Super Bowl Champion tickets. No one was doing that inside any sportsbook. They all take the lines down mid-game, then reassess and hang a new set of futures for the remaining teams.
There were people selling Saints and Chiefs tickets during their games, often for a profit. Even if it wasn’t for a profit, the sellers were at least reclaiming some of their initial stake. That’s an impossible achievement in the primary markets. It’s black and white, win or lose with the tickets printed from the counter.
Today we have gray areas. Your piece of paper is worth whatever someone else is willing to pay for it.
With this mid-game selling strategy in mind, I have found some short term “futures” for Sunday’s Rams vs Patriots battle for the Lombardi. Also a look ahead buy low for next years Super Bowl.
James White Super Bowl MVP +2000
It is hard to envision any Patriots offensive player besides Tom Brady to win the MVP if the Patriots win the game. However, his odds being around +125 make it difficult to gain value on a ticket with his name on it. There will also be no frame of reference with regards to Super Bowl MVP odds during the game, which means no one live MVP odds for bettors to buy mid-game.
Tom Brady has been quoted saying James White is one of the best teammates he has ever played with.
Their chemistry shows.
In their Super Bowl 51 victory over Atlanta, White had 3 total TD’s (including the game winner.) In that game he also racked up 14 catches and over 100 yards receiving.
Although his stat line was a little quieter in Super Bowl 52, he still found the endzone in that game as well. And more recently, in their Divisional Round victory over the Chargers, White snagged 15 balls for nearly 100 yards receiving.
When James White has games like these, it’s clear early on that the Patriots want to get the ball in his hands often. If he has a big first drive and finds the endzone early in the game, this ticket might be a hot commodity on the secondary market. If he doesn’t win the MVP trophy, maybe we can still make a profit on this ticket.
Aaron Donald +1800 and Ndamukong Suh 125/1 MVP
Strong individual defensive performances get rewarded in Super Bowls. Von Miller and Malcolm Smith are some recent examples of Super Bowl MVPs on the defensive side of the ball.
There are preparation scenarios that include the Patriots doing everything in their power to neutralize these two guys up front and make someone else on the Rams defense make stops, but with as dominant as these two can be when they are on, double-teams and extra attention don’t always slow them down.
The reason I have included them in this secondary market list is because usually non-Quarterback MVPs show up early in the game, and in a critical spot late in the game. If the Rams defensive front dominates the line of scrimmage early in this game, there could be some resale value on either of these guys for MVP.
Indianapolis Colts +1800 to Win Super Bowl 54
This opened at least 20/1 in most places. I’ve seen it all the way to 10/1 already. This investment still carries value because the Colts love affair will continue through the offseason and into the start of next season.
I’m guilty of being on the Colts futures bandwagon this season, so part of this is just to continue holding a Colts future for the fun of it. With Indy being legitimate contenders to land Le’veon Bell, this offense could be very scary next year.
Long term futures investments are boring to some people, but just think about the guy who placed $8k on the Saints at 20/1 this time last year and turned it into almost $58k before the NFC Championship game.
Don’t just buy one ticket at this price. Buy several. If they do sign Le’veon Bell, that will be a great time to sell one. Then as they move their way through the AFC South next year and hopefully snag a home game in the playoffs, there will be more opportunities to sell.
(I’m not a Colts fan by the way. Just fell in love with their futures odds this year and am having a hard time quitting them.)