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5 Things: What We Learned From NFL Week 14

5 Things: What We Learned From NFL Week 14

1. Updating The Dying NFL Spread

Again, over the last four years, the NFL spread has mattered two to three times a week within the NFL

Week 13: Baltimore covered as 6.5 point favorites, Cincinnati covered as 14 point favorites.

YTD: 32 times out of 200 games (15%) or 1.5 times per week

Moneyline it. Don’t take the points and reduce your break-even point. Conversely, parlays-not teasers are more profitable, despite the stigma.

Remember-When a favorite wins the game straight up, they cover the spread 85.1% of the time over the last three-plus years and when an underdog covers, they win the game 82% of the time.

2. New England’s Miami Curse Continues

New England can’t play football in Miami in December. This has long been a nicely kept secret by Patriots fans not wanting to admit it to themselves and professionals alike, however, the secret is out. Much like Andy Reid off the bye, one sure thing in the NFL you can count on is The Patriots struggling in this yearly situational spot. This is their second straight loss in Miami and haven’t covered for six straight years. Highlight the spot for next year and wait for kickoff to get the best possible number.

3. F** This Team And F** This Fanbase

That wasn’t my own title for #3. That was an actual quote by Washington Redskins defensive Captain Mason Foster.



Not a great look, but let’s be honest. The team hates playing at home, is starting co-starters Mark Sanchez and Josh Jackson at quarterback and are done after being in first place for over half the NFL season. Time to auto fade while the issues last. Washington allowed 4-0 points to The New York Giants this last week and are currently 7.5 road underdogs against Jacksonville in week 15.

5. The Woes Of Kirk Cousins Continue

The Vikings paid a lot of money to Kirk Cousins this off-season in hopes of having another gunslinger the likes they haven’t seen since well, Brett Favre, but it just hasn’t been the case. Nobody pads the stats like garbage time Kirk Cousins, but let’s take a deeper look into Cousins records:

Kirk Cousin Career Stats Record In Primetime Games: 5-14

 Record vs Winning Teams: 4-25

 Record vs Winning Teams This Year: 0-6

 Career Road Record: 12-24-2

 Career Record On Monday Night Football: 0-8

Not Great. The good news is you should be adding this to your long-term betting plan immediately until something changes. Minnesota hosts Miami at home after Miami’s Super Bowl against New England this week.

A jack of all trades, Christian got his start in the gambling industry using a model to predict players performance in daily fantasy sports. Eventually, he used that same model to cross over into NFL handicapping, specifically the prop market and honed his craft enough to cross over from player projections into every aspect of sports Handicapping. He then made the full time move to Las Vegas to become a professional sports handicapper, utilizing his knowledge of all sports including NFL, NCAA, NBA, UFC, and MLB. He's currently the resident #DFS expert on The Sports Gambling Podcast as well as managing editor.

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