1. Updating The Dying NFL Spread
Again, over the last four years, the NFL spread has mattered two to three times a week within the NFL
This week Tampa Bay covered +5, Denver covered +7.5, and Green Bay covered +9.
YTD: 21 times out of 115 games (18%)
Moneyline it. Don’t take the points and reduce your break-even point. Conversely, parlays-not teasers are more profitable, despite the stigma.
Remember-When a favorite wins the game straight up, they cover the spread 85.1% of the time over the last three-plus years and when an underdog covers, they win the game 82% of the time.
2. The Public Again Cleaned Up
After the season began as a a contrarian bettor’s wet dream, professionals and contrarians have given a large chunk of their accumulated bank rolls back while the general public prospers. After last weeks wins with New England and Minnesota, Joe Public was at it again with Green Bay, the largest public underdog of the season coming in for a win, New England covering two touchdowns, The Steelers putting The Browns to sleep, The Redskins & Bears winning, and not to mention favorites went 10-4 straight up to help out those money line parlays.
Bet against Cleveland, Bet on New England, collect. All is right again in the gambling world.
3. You Don’t Have To Be Connected To Get Inside Info Anymore
Late Saturday morning news broke from across the pound that four Jaguars players were arrested in London following an unpaid bar bill dispute:
— Zach Goodall (@zach_goodall) October 28, 2018
With the inception of social media, especially Twitter, you don’t have to have inside information to be able to get in front of a betting line anymore, you just have to put in a little bit of the work and connect the dots.
Look, I’ve written just about every article that Jacksonville is on life support right now, and I don’t think that was the reason they lost the game, but bookmakers did make an adjustment in the line reaching -4.5 in some places. Have notifications on and get in front of whatever news breaks out for week ahead.
4. The NFL Trade Deadline Is The Most Boring In Sports, But We Had Some Fireworks Today
The NFL’s version of the trade deadline is quite boring most years to be honest, but at least we had some notable names shifting teams leading up to today’s trade deadline. Again, today is the day to keep notifications on a guy like Adam Schefter
Golden Tate traded to Philadelphia for a third round pick
Demaryius Thomas traded to Houston for a fourth round pick
Brandon Marshall was released by The Seattle Seahawks
Terrelle Pryor signed with Buffalo
Ty Montgomery was traded to The Baltimore Ravens
Dante Fowler was traded to The LA Rams
Ha-Ha Clinton Dix was traded To Washington for a fourth round pick
The Patriots remained busy apparently calling just about every team in the league, but nothing notable got done.
5. Derek Anderson Out…Guess Who’s Back?
Petermans back. back again. Peterman’s back, get down quick. Rotoworld recap’d it much better than I ever could:
After coming off an always emotional loss as fourteen point favorites against New England, Buffalo is in a pretty bad spot this week, I know laying a big number with Mitchell Trubisky is never a good idea-but some things are just too good to pass up.