Greetings fellow prop market investors and Monday Night Football. Let’s set the stage with the question I asked Sean as the Bengals (my lock yesterday at -4.5) took a 34-16 lead into the 4th quarter, How do the Bucs fuck me here? Answer, “They have to bench Winson.” Well, what follows is only the work of a Hollywood horror film. The Bucs promptly brought in FitzMAGIC and the rest is history. Well as Denny Green once said, “The past is the fucking past”, so let’s move on to the ultimate Monday Night chase opportunity.
As for the game at hand, this certainly looks like the classic Patriots travel to Buffalo where the Bills Mafia will be in full effect as this is their “Super Bowl”. Will the Bills pull off the miracle? Are the Pats in full FU mode as the city of Boston is hungry for more Championships? For now, let’s dive into the matchup and identify inefficiencies in the prop market to get you paid on Monday Night Football.
Season: 21-24 (-4.75u)
MNF: 16-14 (+1.15u)
TNF: 5-10 (-5.9u)
2017 Season: 63-47-1 (+12.85)
Monday Night Football Game Info
Time: Monday,October 29th @ 5:30 PM Pacific
Location: New Era Field, Orchard Park, New York
Weather: 37 f and partly cloudy
TV: ESPN (Joe Tessitore, Jason Witten, Booger McFarland, Lisa Salters)
Spread: Patriots -14.5
Odds courtesy of MyBookie.ag
Monday Night Football Prop Bets – Five Ways to Get Paid
1. James White Over 5.5 Receptions (-150) & 2. Over 52.5 Receiving Yards
This one is currently a cheat code, over his last four, White is averaging ~8 catches on just over 10 targets for ~64 yards. To further strengthen the position the weak spot of this Buffalo defense is defending RBs in the passing game (24th DVOA). Don’t overthink a good thing.
3. Patriots Over 1.5 Field Goals (-140)
That’s right I’m going for a Field Goal Prop! Say it with me, “Bend but don’t Break”, McDermott bunch epitomize this mantra. The numbers even back it up as Buffalo is giving up 1.8 FGs made overall and that number skyrockets to 2.5 when you look at home games. Look for the Patriots to move the ball up and down the field but struggle to convert TDs in the red zone.
4. Kenjon Barner Over 44.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
The Bills defense will surely be game planning all week to slow down Brady and the passing game and I’m going to guess not a ton of focus will be placed on Barner. Sprinkle in a little game-flow advantage (Patriots are -14.5) and this feels a bit like stealing.
5. Tremaine Edmunds Over 8 Tackles + Assists (-105)
Another first for Monday Night, a defense player prop. Yes, he is a Hokie but put that aside for a second, the 1st round selection is averaging ~7.7 total tackles and now faces a dream matchup(from this props perspective at least) in the Patriots who target the flats and short middle of the field as much as any team in football. Well, who lurks in those areas of the field, the high flying rookie Tremaine Edmunds.
Good luck and Let it Ride!!!