Greetings fellow prop market investors and Thursday Night Football. Who is ready for the battle of the Tech’s VT vs GT…Just kidding we will be focusing yet another Thursday night shit show between the “holy shit how are they 4-3” Houston Texans vs the “Remember when they were 3-0” Miami Dolphins.
Will Brock get revenge? Can Bill O’Brien save his job for one more week? For now, let’s dive into the matchup and identify inefficiencies in the prop market to get you paid on Thursday Night Football. For more in-depth analysis listen to the Week 8 Picks Podcast below.
Season: 20-20 (-1.4u)
MNF: 16-14 (+1.15u)
TNF: 4-6 (-2.55u)
Thursday Night Football Game Info
Time: Thursday, October 25th @ 5:20 PM Pacific
Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
Weather: 65f Clear
TV: FOX(Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Erin Andrews, Kristina Pink)
Spread: Texans -7.5
MoneyLine: +285/-360
Total: 44
Odds courtesy of MyBookie.ag
Thursday Night Football Prop Bets – Five Ways to Get Paid
1. Houston Texans Over 2.5 Sacks (-115)
Normally I would be all over the Game over for sacks but the Dolphins have been a dreadful getting to the QB 11 times in 7 games. Meanwhile, I do like the chances of this HOU D(8th in adjusted sack rate) at home against the statue formally known as Brock.
2. Largest Lead Under 16.5 (-110)
Forgive me for having no understanding of how HOU can be favored by 7.5 points. And for that reason, I don’t believe that we will see anything close to a blow out with a total this low.
3. There be a Defensive or Special Teams Touchdown (+180)
Brocktober + Houstons O-line =great time to take a shot at this +180 dog. Now that is scientific.
4. Lamar Miller Under 64.5 Rush Yards (-110)
Miller has been hot garbage most of his career and Miami has been an above average run defense this year checking in at 11th in DVOA. While I expect him to get some work, I don’t foresee a game where HOU is up 21 and killing clock. Enjoy.
5. DeVante Parker Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Kenny Stills out, Albert Wilson out, Parker in. I know he has been a bust his entire career but if there was ever an opportunity this week is it. Hopefully talent+opportunity=$$$.
Good luck and Let it Ride!!!
