Greetings fellow prop market investors and Monday Night Football. In what surely seemed to be a better matchup before the season, the Giants and the Falcons take their combined 3 wins to the bright lights of Monday Night Football. Sure this game projects to include a lot of scoring, the bigger question is which one of these teams is poised to make a 2nd half surge to compete for a playoff spot…my guess none of the above.
As for the game at hand, this certainly looks to be a winnable game for both teams as neither the Giants or the Falcons have shown the ability to execute at a high level consistently for an entire game. For now, let’s dive into the matchup and identify inefficiencies in the prop market to get you paid on Monday Night Football. For more in-depth analysis listen to the Week 7 Picks Podcast below.
Season: 17-18 (-2.4u)
MNF: 13-12 (+.15u)
TNF: 4-6 (-2.55u)
Monday Night Football Game Info
Time: Monday, October 22nd @ 5:30 PM Pacific
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
TV: ESPN (Joe Tessitore, Jason Witten, Booger McFarland, Lisa Salters)
Spread: Falcons -4.5
Odds courtesy of MyBookie.ag
Monday Night Football Prop Bets – Five Ways to Get Paid
1. Score in the first 5:30 YES (+100)
This is a joke, neither team has played any defense this year, take the over and enjoy a 1st quarter cash!
2. Total Sacks Over 4.5 (-115)
On paper, if you look at the pass rushes for both these teams you would be inclined to look under as these teams have combined for a dreadful 2.8 sacks per game. I would caution anyone using that approach as these teams have two of the worst O-lines in football and of course, you have Eli who has a propensity to just fall over when pressure is getting close. Just take a look at the 6.2 sacks they are allowing a game and dont over think it. OVER
3. Saquon Barkley Over 5.5 Receptions (-135) & 4. Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
Sure we are paying some extra juice here and we are surely buying at a steep price but he simply has been the only thing right with the Giants this year. Over the course of the season, he has averaged 6.7 catches and 62.1 yards. I don’t see why that changes against the team who has given up the most receptions to running backs in the league. Enjoy the Barkley show.
5. Austin Hooper Under 45.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
As a contrarian(i know I’m contradicting myself with that last set of props) I like to fade recency. Well, Austin Hooper is coming off two great matchups for the TE(PIT & TB) that saw him haul in 18 catches for 148 yards. I expect that to regress in a big way against the giants who have actually been pretty good slowing down opposing TEs(11th DVOA). Recency faded, see you at the window.
Good luck and Let it Ride!!!