With a few weeks sample size to work with, we now have a better feel for what teams are trying to accomplish and which teams struggle on defense against certain positions. Let’s get to some players who will outperform their price in Week 3 and carry lower ownership than the chalky players the public will be on this week.
Play of the Week
Jimmy Garoppolo $6,500 DK
Through two games this season, the 49ers golden boy has averaged 34 pass attempts per game, 2nd lowest in the NFL. This week’s matchup might change things as the Chiefs have allowed the most points to Quarterbacks (32.5 DK PPG) while having to defend 111 pass attempts. This comes as no surprise as the Kansas City high powered offense calls for the opposing teams game plan to favor the passing game.
The Chiefs defense is missing a plethora of defensive backs from last season and lacks any sense of dominance vs the pass. Through 2 games they have allowed over 850 passing yards attached to 6 passing touchdowns. In a game with a total of 56.5, the highest of the week, look for Jimmy G to have more attempts and yards in this game than in either of his first two contest.
Matt Ryan $5,700 DK
When targeting potential high scoring matchups, divisional rivalries in the NFC South usually produce points, at least thats what Vegas thinks this week setting a total of 53. Ryan has thrown for multiple scores in 5 of the last 7 meetings between the two franchises. He is coming off a 4 touchdown performance where he threw for two touchdowns and also added a couple on the ground. Surprisingly, the Saints defense has been beatable this season.
How can we forget what Ryan Fitzpatrick did week 1 in his 417 yards and four touchdown performance? Although Ryan has struggled with passing touchdowns in the red zone, he is 6th in Air Yards facing a defense thats allowed the 4th most pass yards and touchdowns while allowing an 8.6% touchdown rate. This isn’t the same New Orleans defense from last season and the Falcons will be looking to take full advantage on home turf.
Alex Smith $5,800 DK
Efficient is what comes to mind here. Washingtons new leader has completed over 70% of his passes through two games. The only problem for us fantasy guys is it does nothing for us when he fails to throw touchdowns, and thats what happened on Sunday. This could indicate a spot for positive regression as Smith only failed to toss a score in 2 games last season, and in his first 3 weeks, he had 7 passing scores. His opponent, a Packers defense that finished 6th in most points allowed to the QB position in 2017 giving up 30 passing touchdowns.
For now, it seems to have spilled into 2018 where they are surrendering 24.3 DFS points per game, the 5th most in the league. Smith is quietly top 10 in dropbacks and pass attempts, and look for that to continue against a defense that has allowed the 7th most pass yards this season and 10th most in 2017. Something else that hurts the Packers is they gave up 6.9 YPA on pass plays last season and this year another 6.5, this is something that works perfectly when targeting their defense as they allowed the 2nd most first downs in 2017 (211) giving your QB more opportunities with extended drives.
Mitchell Trubisky $5,500 DK
All we heard about this offseason; look out for the high octane Bears offense under new Head Coach Matt Nagy. Other than a few quarters in the Packers game debacle, the Chicago offense has left a lot to be desired. Trubisky is 28th in pass attempts and 26th in dropbacks. When the second-year QB does pass, his abysmal 5.4 YPA is something that leaves you scratching your head with all the weapons he has at his disposal.
This weeks foe, the struggling Arizona Cardinals, just what the doctor ordered. A team who usually does well in pass defense but find themselves struggling this year already giving up 589 pass yards (5th) and 8.8 YPA the 2nd most in the NFL. I also like the fact Arizona is struggling to move the ball giving Money Mitch more possessions as the Cardinals only average 4.7 plays and 17.5 yards per drive only taking 2:23 off the clock per offensive possession. I strongly believe Trubisky goes under the radar and crushes value for his price.
Matthew Stafford $5,900 DK
In a what have you done for me lately league, week 1 left us with a sour taste for Stafford following the Monday night atrocity vs the Jets. The Lions captain bounced back with a 28.6 DK Point display. Even after his horrible start, Stafford is top 3 in dropbacks, pass attempts and completions. He has now attempted 99 passes in two weeks and expect more of the same if the Lions get behind. This week opposing defense just got gashed by Blake Bortles for 377 yards and 4 touchdowns. This is nothing new in New England for a defense that ranked 7th in points allowed to quarterbacks during last season.
The Patriots also allowed 251.3 Pass Y/G, 3rd most in the NFL in 2017. The way to beat the Patriots is throwing as they only allowed 6 rushing scores last season compared to 24 through the air. Detroit carries an implied total of 22.5 and I think they will need to surpass that to have a chance to win this game. The 51.5 game total indicates there will be some scoring and the Patriots are favored by 6.5 points, pushing us to believe the game will stay somewhat competitive with the Lions chasing the scoreboard.