The 2018 NFL season is upon us, we all know what that means. Fire up the Daily fantasy lineups in search of some of these enormous prizes provided.
Selecting the right players isn’t the only task at hand when trying to beat one of these larger fields. When picking your roster, depending on the type of contest you’ve entered, fading players with high ownership can be the key to move up leaderboards.
Let’s discuss some of the Week 1 options you could plug into your lineups. ( Keep In Mind the Main slate excludes the Sunday night game)
Chalk
Wide Receivers
Antonio Brown (vs Browns) $8,600
Business is always booming, at least in 84’s world. Since 2014, Brown was ranked as the overall WR1, WR1, WR3, WR2. He is the definition of consistency, finishing top 12 at his position 9 times last season, a league high. Not only does that prove his floor, but his league-high 6 top 5 finishes also shows he has the highest ceiling of any pass catcher in the NFL. His matchup, The Browns who surprisingly were a middle tier pass defense in pass yards allowed in 2017.
Their demise, allowing the 4th most passing TD’s. The absence of Le’Veon Bell opens up 106 targets on an offense that thrives on moving the ball quickly. With the price tag he carries, he will need at least 34.4 Points to attain 4X value. Add on his hefty projected 24% ownership, and using Brown in cash games might be the staple, but fading him vs. Big fields can prove to be the pivot needed to top the leaderboards.
Deandre Hopkins (vs, Patriots) $ 8,300
This weeks game with the highest total promises to be a barn burner. 51 is the estimated sum in Sunday’s contest. Their last match up saw 69 total points and 813 offensive yards. In that game, Hopkins only had seven catches for 76 yards. Something that has to be looked at is his performances vs. the Patriots historically. In 4 regular season meetings, he has failed to catch more than seven balls and hasn’t scored a touchdown. His rankings in those performances,
2013 33rd
2015 47th
2016 46th
2017 38th
Is it the capacity in the game-planning of Bill Belichick to take away your primary weapon? Facing off vs. a Patriots team that allowed the 4th most points to the position. Even further, they usually struggle vs. No. 1 wideouts ranking 26th in DVOA so again it gives merit to the gameplan being just that, taking away Nuk.
Michael Thomas (vs. Buccanneers) $7,800
Attaching yourself to the top wideout of a team that has an implied total of 30, usually works out well. Let’s mix in the fact that his opponents allowed the most points to wideouts last season (38.5), and the most receiving yards (2900). Thomas finished 6th overall in PPR scoring at his position and looks to continue last seasons success. One thing that can be said about the Buccaneers is that they’re ranked 15th vs. No.1 wide receivers, but then drop significantly vs. No.2 (21st) and No.3 (27th). The Saints pass catcher carries the 4th most projected ownership percentage this week at 17%.
Keenan Allen (vs. Chiefs) $7,500
One of my favorite plays this week will be Phillip Rivers top target this weekend. He will also carry the top ownership this weekend, but with good merit as the Chiefs lost six total defensive backs this offseason, with names like Marcus Peters gone to LA and Eric Berry’s status still in question. Last season Kansas City allowed the second most points to wide receivers giving up 37.4 a game. Add in the losses to the secondary, and this can turn into one of those game where Allen goes wild and catches 15 balls with a pair of scores. Last season, Allen managed 5 top 10 fantasy finishes while bullying his way to 169 targets, top 5 in the NFL.
Mid Tier
Chris Hogan (vs. Texans) $6,100
Paired in a storybook encounter, the top wideout on a depleted receiving corps takes the attention in a game that screams shootout. Houston ranked 25th in pass DVOA and struggled on defense all last year. Now, a lot can be said for the injuries, and new additions to the secondary can see things change, but Tom Brady will need someone he trusts other than his tight end, and Hogan promises to be just that. Before his shoulder injury, Hogan was the 10th overall wide receiver and with the departure of Brandon Cooks, look for the speedy wideout to get more opportunity outside. The Texans were ranked 31st vs. balls thrown in the middle of the field and 31st vs. deep balls; this spells disaster.
Devin Funchess (vs. Cowboys) $5,200
A new look in the Panthers coaching staff brings a sense of anticipation for the offense in Carolina. Insert Norv Turner, into an attack that ranked 5th worse in passing yards. So what can the new offensive coordinator bring? Well for starters Norv has always enjoyed the big prototype wideout, think Michael Irvin and Josh Gordon. Now he gets the 6’4 225lb target that has the speed to beat defenders on the outside. Funchess is coming off career highs in Touchdowns, yards per game, and catch percentage. Dallas comes into town with a secondary that leaves a lot to be desired ranking 21st in DVOA vs. Wide receiver 1’s. Look for Cam Newton to target Funchess in the Red Zone where he had 15 targets last season leading all wideouts on his team. The game carries a low total and weather is something to monitor.
Flyer of the Week
John Ross (vs. Colts) $3,900
When you have the Olympic type speed, the Bengals wideout possesses, big plays are always a threat. Looking like he’s past the injury bug, Ross brings another vertical threat to an offense which was very mediocre in passing categories. He faces a defense that allowed the 12th most fantasy points to the position. Something that helped the Colts final numbers were the matchups vs. their weak division in which they held the Texans and Titans wideout to under 17 points, something they also did vs. a weak Bills squad. The attention will be on A.J Green leaving space for the fasted man in the NFL to propel in.
