Five Things We Learned From NFL Week 11


1.The Neutral Site Trend Remains Unbeaten

This has been my favorite trend to bet on this season and it cashed another bet easily with New England laying -5.5 to -7 in most places. Teams laying 4 or more points on a neutral field are now 12-0 SU and 12-0 ATS covering by more than 20+ points per game. There won’t be another opportunity to back this trend this season aside from maybe the Super Bowl, but I’m not sure I’d blindly back it in that game situation. This is definitely something to keep in mind for next season, however.

2. Dallas Just Lost Their Season

In addition to Atlanta being a huge “buy” team moving forward, I was subscribed to the theory that Dallas was looking past Atlanta to somewhat of their Super Bowl for their matchup with Philadelphia this week. In the biggest sportsbook liability of the season, nearly 92% of bets couldn’t even save Dallas as they fell to Philadelphia 37-9 in primetime.

Dallas fell to 5-5 and this feels like another classic 8-8 season upcoming for Jason Garret with no Zeke Elliot and Dak Prescott having to do way more than he’s capable of. I’m not comfortable backing Dallas again this season after a crushing loss like this, so buyer beware moving forward. Philadelphia is the class of the NFC and it isn’t close.

3. LA May Face Regression

I’ve been beating my chest to anyone that would listen that The Rams have faced the easiest schedule in the NFL and it was about to come crashing down against a defense that plays out of their minds at home. I know Jared Goff as looked great, but he’s done so against some of the worst teams in the NFL. I don’t want to take away from LA, but they are a huge regression candidate looking ahead. LA gets an underrated Saints defense this week, but the question mark of Marshon Lattimore is a huge one. If he’s a go, I may look to back the regression again and as you can see, I’m selling LA.

4. Andy Reid Let Bettors Down

Death, taxes, and Andy Reid off the bye, right? Wrong. Andy Reid let the betting world down this week in a huge way losing outright as 10 point favorites by losing 12-9 against the worst team in the league. Something to keep an eye on is with the new CBA, teams aren’t allowed to even be in the practice facility during a bye week, let alone get in some work. Road teams as a favorite off a bye since the new CBA are just 10-8 ATS. If Andy Reid isn’t safe, no one is.

5. Brock Osweiler Should Never Lay Points

I hope you didn’t pass up plus money to fade one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL this week. Cincinnati was available on the money line right in the range of +125 this past week and it came through. Denver’s stout defense has officially given up on the season and it’s hard to blame them given the state of the offense.

For all the talk about how Denver wanted Brock Osweiler to step up, as you can see, he is who we thought he was, and I hope you didn’t let him off the hook. Denver fell to 3-7 on the season and they have no lost to some of the worst teams in the NFL including The Giants. Denver can not be trusted with your money anymore and should be looked as as a fade or pass moving ahead as long as Brock Osweiler is behind center. It’s that simple.

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