Greetings fellow sports market investors and happy Monday Night Football. As you can see from my incredibly mediocre record below I am crushing Monday Night Football and getting crushed on Thursday Night Football, good thing we are here to talk about MNF.
This week we have a classic NFC North battle between Mathew Stafford and the Lions & Brent Hundley and the Packers. Ok so maybe its not a classic with out the injured Aaron Rodgers but it still should be a tight fought game on the frozen tundra of Lambeau field in prime time.
What does this mean for the game? Who knows what the football gods have in store as far as game outcome, but what I do know is that I will try to get you paid in the prop market.
For more in depth NFL analysis check out the Week Nine NFL Picks Podcast where we breakdown and pick all 13 games on the slate.
Season: 25-24-1 (+1.5u)
MNF:15-10 (+8.1u)
TNF:10-14-1 (-6.6u)
Monday Night Football Game Info
Time: Monday November 6th @ 5:30 PM Pacific
Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
Weather: 32f and partly cloudy w/ light winds
TV: ESPN(Sean McDonough, Jon Gruden)
Spread: Lions -2
MoneyLine: -130/+110
Total: 43
Odds courtesy of BetOnline.ag
Monday Night Football Prop Bets – Five Ways to Get Paid
1. Theo Riddick Over 36.5 Total Yards (-110)
For starters Riddick has only failed to go over this total in 2 of 7 games and with a juicy matchup on deck vs a Packer defense that is giving up 6 for ~33 to running backs and I am taking the over.
2. Jordy Nelson Under 54.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
The unders for all Packer WRs are in play with Hundley replacing Rodgers. The reason I like this one the best, Darius Slay. Slay is maybe the best CB you’ve never heard of helping the Lions to hold #1 WRs to 5th lowest per game totals in the league. Play the under and thank me later.
3. Over 4.5 Sacks (-110)
The Lions and Packers are combining to give up 7 sacks per game and that was with Aaron Rodgers working his magic. If you dive deeper you see that both teams are in the bottom 10 in adjusted sack rate on offense and sporting league average pass rushes. Add it all up and I see this coming in some time in the 3rd quarter.
4. Golden Tate Over 5.5 Receptions (-110)
Tate is coming off back to back 7 catch games w/ a season average of ~6 and is clearly the primary focus of Stafford on most pass plays. Now factor in how bad Green Bay has been defending #1 WRs(Yes he is there #1) and this play jumped off the board as I was expecting to have to pay -140 or so. Take it hard and fast like Tate took Russell Wilson woman before he left Seattle.
5. Longest Score under 41.5 yards (-110)
Both these teams are in the top 10 at defending the deep ball and with the weather expected to be around freezing I dont see this being a high scoring explosive battle. Perhaps a defensive or special teams TD will screw me here but I certainly don’t see the offenses getting it done. Take the under and you know what the best part about taking unders, you get to sweat it the whole game.
Good luck and Let it Ride!!!
