Greetings all and hears to another profitable Monday Night. Favorites went a whopping 9-3 ATS so Im guessing you have some money in your pocket to invest on Monday Night Football. This is a very intriguing matchup for us over at the Sports Gambling Podcast as this game represents the convergence of two successful trends we have been following all year.
First you have the Chiefs coming off long rest where we have seen teams go 17-9-1 ATS. Second you have the Broncos who are coming off a game that saw them under perform the spread by 21 pts or more and now they are getting points, we call this the Close Your Eyes Special, and its currently 8-4 ATS this year and ~60% over the last 15 years.
What does this mean for the game? Who knows what the football gods have in store as far as game outcome, but what I do know is that I will try to get you paid in the prop market.
For more in depth NFL analysis check out the Week Eight NFL Picks Podcast where we breakdown and pick all 13 games on the slate.
Season: 24-20-1 (+4.5u)
Monday Night Football Game Info
Time: Monday October 30th @ 5:30 PM Pacific
Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
Weather: 43f and clear w/ 10-15mph winds
TV: ESPN(Sean McDonough, Jon Gruden)
Spread: Chiefs -7
Odds courtesy of BetOnline.ag
Monday Night Football Prop Bets – Five Ways to Get Paid
1. Trevor Siemian Under 20.5 Completions (-110)
I think Denver knows they are in trouble and I think they realize that the way to stay in this game is to limit the Chiefs opportunities to pop a big play. How do you do that, well you employ the NYG approach to beating the Patriots. Run the rock and eat clock. KC sports the #28 rush defense(DVOA) which should provide the needed game flow to ensure that Siemian stays under 21 completions.
2. Total Sacks Over 4.5 (-140)
I circled this matchup and knew I would be playing the over for sacks assuming it was 5 or less. Both these teams have O-line issues, sitting in the bottom half of adjusted offensive sack rate and give up a combined 6.7 sacks per game. Although I do think the game flow will make this trickier than it looks on the surface there is a ton of value in this spot and I wouldn’t be surprised if this prop goes over in the 3rd quarter.
3. CJ Anderson Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Again game flow should help this prop get to the window. With KC’s porous run defense (27th line yards) and Siemian’s shakiness of late I expect the Denver coaching staff to pound it early and often and no Im not believing any of this internet fodder that suggests Charles will be more heavily involved as he is washed up. Don’t be surprised if CJ gets his 2nd 100 yard game of the season tonight.
4. Kareem Hunt Under 80.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Hunt has been amazing this year but has failed to go over 100 yards 3 times this year and if you throw out the weird game last week, the other 2 instances occurred against the Steelers and Eagles who boast top 6 D-lines in line yards. In walks the Broncos and their #1 rush defense(DVOA) and also #3 in line yards. Hunt gets shut down early and often in the run game and fails to top 80 yards for the 2nd time this year.
5. Tyreek Hill Under 60.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Although Denver doesn’t have the pass defense they once did(17th DVOA), they do an amazing job of shutting down your #1 WR(to the tune of -47.9% DVOA). In this case it also allows us to fade Hills huge game on Thursday Night Football. I should point out I almost went with over on Kelce here as Denver is awful against the TE. There is just more value on this prop, plus Im sure Ill tweet out Kelce 1st TD later.
Good luck and Let it Ride!!!