Happy Thursday Night Football friends, if you had a week 7 like myself you are itching to get it started on the right foot for week 8. This week TNF brings us what on the surface looks to be a sloppy pile of typical Thursday Night Football trash. Unfortunately when I dive deeper into the matchup it leaves me with even less to be desired. In a matchup that sees a shocking 4-2 Dolphins team head to the road with out ‘Smoking’ Jay Cutler to take on the hapless Ravens led by Joe Flacco who has looked like a shell of his typically mediocre self. Are you ready for low scoring sloppy defensive struggle?! Yeah me neither, but hey lemons make lemonade right.
Lets dive into the matchup and find some angles in the prop market to get you paid on Thursday Night Football. For more in depth NFL analysis check out the Week Eight NFL Picks Podcast where we breakdown and pick all 15 games on the slate.
Season: 22-17-1 (+5.6u)
MNF:15-10 (+8.1u)
TNF:7-7-1 (-2.5u)
Thursday Night Football Game Info
Time: Thursday October 26th @ 5:30 PM Pacific
Location: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Maryland
Weather: 52f and clear w/ 5-10mph winds
TV: CBS, NFL Network & Amazon Prime
Spread: Ravens -3
MoneyLine: 130/-150
Total: 37.5
Odds courtesy of BetOnline.ag
Thursday Night Football Prop Bets – Five Ways to Get Paid
1. Matt Moore Under 218.5 Passing Yards (-110) & 2. Under 1.5 Pass TDs (-135)
First though here…GET THE FUCK OUT OF HERE. This is a Dolphins team that has averaged a disgusting ~197 yards per game from their QBs. Meanwhile the Ravens who boast the #4 pass defense(DVOA) have given up ~189 yards per game. As far as the TD prop, the Ravens are one of the top red zone defenses in the league holding teams to TDs under 40% of the time, and unless Moore hits some deep shots I don’t see anyway in hell he gets 2 passing TDs. In closing, backup QB vs an elite pass defense, don’t over think it folks.
3. Total Punts Under 10.5 (+115)
This is a total contrarian play as this prop sits a full punt over the typical 9.5. I think its more likely than not that the game flow includes heavy doses of the run game on both sides killing more clock and reducing the number of possessions. Fade the obviously public side here and take the under.
4. Total FG Over 3.5 (+125)
So the Ravens average ~2 FGs a game and with the way their offense plays I expect that to continue. The shocking part of this prop is how MIA has only attempted 8 FGs all year. Say it with me REGRESSION! As I cited earlier the Ravens sport one of the top red zone defenses holding teams to TDs only 38.1% of the time, which means more field goals. Thats right 2 of the 4 props Ive given out so far are kicking props, who says we don’t love kicking balls in this country.
5. Javorius Allen Over 59.5 Total yards (-110)
This Dolphins team is solid against the run boasting the #3 rush defense(DVOA), but where they struggle is stopping RBs in the passing game. During the 2017 season the Dolphins have given up ~49 yards on 6.7 catches to running backs. Allen is also coming off an 11 target game. I look for him to be involved in the passing game early and often and get a handful of carries which should bring him easily over the somewhat low total of 59.5 yards.
Good luck and Let it Ride!!!
