Division rivals, the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs will collide on Monday Night Football, October 30th on ESPN. Both of these teams are coming off division losses and are looking for a bounce back. This game could be quite significant for the Broncos who are 3-3, chasing the Chiefs (5-2) for a shot at the playoffs.
Tracking the Money
One thing that stuck out at me right away is the fact that Westgate opened on last week’s look-ahead with the Kansas City Chiefs as 6-point home favorites and by noon on Monday, the line was already bet up past the key number on the 7-point Sunday opener to 7.5. As of Early Tuesday morning, 83% of the bets and 78% of the money are on the Chiefs ATS.
The percentages on the Total is more extreme with 74% of bets and 98% of the money going on the UNDER. Lines are hanging around with not much. If you are sold on the under as well, check the odds at Bovada before placing action, as they are currently a half point better than both BetOnline or Westgate.
A Kink In The Cogs?
The Chiefs have been a machine that has been systematically wearing opponents down all season. It’s not flashy –with the exception of Kareem Hunt’s explosive moves—but they throw you on the cheese-grater and grind you down much like the souls of people stuck in call center cubicles around the world.
But … will there be a couple of teeth missing from the gears of the KC machine coming off short rest? They had a hard-fought Thursday Night Football game against their other long-time division rivals, the Oakland Raiders … and it only took them five tries to lose in spectacular fashion in the final seconds of the 4th—man, what a game!
The Arrowhead Machine
The Kansas City Chiefs are 9-5 (64.3%) ATS in division games since 2015. However, they are only 7-11-1 as home favorites in that same stretch which falls short on profitability at 38.9% ATS. Not to come down on the Chiefs home-fav ATS record too hard, they are 2-1 this season.
Broncos Out On The Range
Since 2015, the Denver Broncos have only been listed as road-dogs seven times and have a 4-3 ATS record at 57.1%. As the away team in any circumstance, the Broncos are dead evens at 9-9. Where the Broncs seem to fall short covering the number is in division games. Since 2015, they are just 6-8-1 (42.9% against the spread) in divisional matchups.
Offense vs. Defense
Like I said before, the Chiefs are an offensive machine. They are averaging just under 30 points per game, but for some reason feel more pressure in front of their fans, averaging near a touchdown less at Arrowhead (23.00 ppg).
The Denver defense has been stout … especially the No-Fly secondary which could cause Smith and company problems moving the ball. The Broncos are only allowing 19 points and change this season, but unlike the Chiefs offense who play worse at home, the Broncos defense gives up almost four more on the road (23.5 ppg).
Flipping the coin, the Denver offense has been slightly sub-par overall at 18 points per game. On the road, the story changes drastically and the Broncos offense look like a bunch of beat-up old nags trying to climb a rocky hill with an overweight rider. The opposite of prolific, the Broncs are only putting up 8 points per game outside of Mile High … pitiful. This goes against a Chiefs defense that is allowing 23 points per game in Kansas City, but that average might get a little better after facing this Denver road-offense.
The Override Code
KC has been tough for a couple of years but the Broncos just seem to have their number. Of the last 10 times, these two teams have faced each-other, the Denver Broncos have walked away happy victors 7 times. In addition to being 70% against the Chiefs, the Broncos perform particularly well in Arrowhead, beating the Chiefs in five of the lasts six meeting.
So, does this mean that Denver has the override codes to shut down Kansas City’s offensive machine? Everything goes out the window in division rivalry games and the Broncos do have a knack for beating the Chiefs. I believe that Denver will get the win, but more than seven points is too much with rivals such as these. I believe the public will keep on pounding action on Kansas City and drive the number up a little more, then the sharps will come in on the weekend and go the other way.
Watch the number carefully and time this one to get the highest number you can and take the Broncos to get the backdoor cover. We’ll see a 14-21 or 17-24 score.