Good Lord. Underdogs went an unbelievable 11-2 in the NFL during week 6 with Miami (+14), Chicago (+6.5), Minnesota (+3.5), Pittsburgh (+4.5), LA Chargers (+3), and The New York Giants (+13.5) winning outright. With parody and the level from the best to the worst teams in the NFL coming down to earth underdogs are cashing in at a record pace.
At the time of this writing, underdogs in the NFL are now 61.6% at 52-36-2. Obviously this is much to the dismay of the general betting public as the 70/30 rule has come in at another record breaking pace. Teams with less than 30% of early bets during the week: Cleveland +5.5 (29%), Chicago +3 (25%), San Francisco (+6) 30%, and LAC (-1) 30%.
Some Quick Hits:
- Underdogs vs. Favorites (ATS): 11-3 (Year to Date: 52-36-2)
- Home vs. Away (ATS): 6-9 (Year to Date: 40-46-2)
- Straight up Underdog Wins: 9 (Year to Date: 39)
2. Aaron Rodgers True Worth
The injury bug has hit teams at a wild pace this season and the worst part is that it’s players that actually matter to the spread in this market. JJ Watt, Odell Beckham, Julian Edelman, Sam Bradford, Andrew Luck, Allen Robinson, and now you can add Aaron Rodgers to the mix being out for the season with a broken collar bone. Now I realize this is a what we’ve learned article, but we didn’t learn a lot from Brett Hundley, but what I want to talk about is the fact that the look ahead line for week 7 between Green Bay and New Orleans was Green Bay -7.
At the time of this writing, New Orleans is now a 5 point favorite. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a more extreme market move of 12 points for one player. I understand the greatness that is Aaron Rodgers, however that is almost two touchdowns. Sometimes a market can shift too extreme, and I think that’s the case here. What this does do however is vault Seattle and Philadelphia into the favorite status in the NFC. They are doing it in two different ways however as Philadelphia’s strength is up front, which is Seattle’s weakness.
3. New England’s Tight End Woes
I know, you weren’t expecting me to write about New England’s problem covering tight ends, but if you pay attention it can make you some money. Counting backwards, Austin Seferian Jenkins hauled in 8 receptions for 46 yards and a touchdown (probably should have had two), Cameron Brate had 5 receptions for 68 yards and a touchdown, Ed Dickson went for 3 and 32, and Ryan Griffin went for 5/61/1.
The reason I bring this up as how historically bad New England is against the tight end is for the prop market. Over, Over, Over on every prop bet on the oppositions tight end. This week they get Austin Hooper from Atlanta, who actually scored a touchdown against New England in the Super Bowl (hello first touchdown prop), and has 17 receptions for 242 yards on the season. Take the over on catches, yards, and take a stab at the touchdown prop. It’s been money in the bank.
4. Cleveland Follies
It’s not a earth shattering statement to say that Cleveland isn’t good. I realize that. But I don’t think people are really understanding the level that they are operating at this season. They have one win in the last 22 games. Cleveland was the only team to fall against the spread to a double digit underdog this week against the spread, and it wasn’t even close.
You guys know I like to look at things from a long term view rather than making life hard each and every week, and I’m ready to just put the blanket fade on them. Don’t waste your time handicapping their games, turn on the auto fade. It’s not going to get any better.
5. San Francisco’s Historic Gambling Run
In a world where we are seeing the spread matter less and less, San Francisco is personally doing their best to disrupt my theory. San Francisco lost by two points to Washington last week (+10), lost by 3 to Indianapolis (+1), lost by 3 to Arizona (+5), lost by 3 to LA (+3.5), and lost by 3 to Seattle (+13.5) the last 6 weeks covering any spread greater than 3.
No one really knows who will start at quarterback for San Francisco this week, however ride this train until it comes to a stop as San Francisco hosts Dallas (+6) this week.