Monday Night Football in week 13 takes place in the Big Apple, as the Miami Dolphins look to go into New York and get the W against the shambles that we affectionately refer to as a football team.
Whilst Miami are looking like a real wildcard contender, the Jets continue to masquerade around in the guise of a professional sports team. Some people are falling for the gag, but Buffalo saw through the disguise last Monday night as they tore this team a new one en-route to a 38-3 walloping.
Miami’s Near Win
Miami on the other hand went into Denver and very nearly knocked off a true AFC heavyweight. All that being said, we still have a pretty big spread here, as the Jets are getting a full touchdown as a home team in a divisional contest. Let’s break down some numbers shall we?
Let’s begin with the gambling numbers.
ATS Following A Loss
ATS As A Favorite
ATS As An Underdog
Looking at the spread numbers from this season, betting the Jets this season would be akin to dipping your scrotum in honey and sitting on an ants nest. Aside from knowing it’s a bad idea to start with, it’d also be painful. And just like watching the attempt at quarterback play from gang green, it’d be hard to watch.
Betting Miami against the spread would be like dipping your scrotum in tequila and heading over to Lindsay Lohans house. If you close your eyes and forget it’s Lindsay Lohan, you probably feel like a winner. The question we have to ask ourselves is this – have the books adjusted enough to these numbers to make fading Miami for now a better play? Or do we need to stay on for at least another week?
Monday Night Football Preview
My lean on this game goes against my usual instinct. I don’t like playing chalk very often, but giving less than 3 points isn’t a big deal for me. This situation is very different. An away team giving a full touchdown, in a divisional game, in prime time, a week after playing a big away game against a top opponent. 7 point home dog the week after getting pounded by 35 points. This would usually make me lean Jets. Only problem? It’s the Jets.
The last time the Jets were beaten by 30+ points was away to the Chargers. A week later they hosted what was at that time a high flying Denver team as 10 point underdogs. They were able to keep the game close, and looked to have beaten the spread, only to pick six it away close to full time. Like I said, it’s the Jets.
I have to go Miami. Give me double digits, and I am all over Gang Green here. But 7 points? I have to go the Porpoises. Miami’s defense is legit, and offensively, the Jets look more Pee Wee football than NFL right now. The Geno coaster is back in this game, and I don’t think he’s tall enough for this ride.
From a betting standpoint, a big Miami win here would be the turning point for backing the gay sharks, and I would look to fade them for at least the next two weeks as they host Baltimore and then travel to New England. The total in this game right now is 42, which I think is about right. I wouldn’t be looking at playing it at that number. If it were to drop any lower (which I would doubt) I would play the over. I assume it gets higher closer to kick off, so if I were to play the over, I would be getting on it now. That Jets defense probably isn’t good enough to justify playing under 42 points.
FINAL PREDICTION – MIAMI 27, NEW YORK JETS 10