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Let’s Talk About Teasers – Week 4 NFL Wong Teasers

INDIANAPOLIS, IN – SEPTEMBER 25: Kansas City Chiefs Running Back Clyde Edwards-Helaire (25) cuts back to avoid the tackle attempt by Indianapolis Colts Linebacker Zaire Franklin (44) during and NFL game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Indianapolis Colts on September 25, 2022, at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN. (Photo by Jeffrey Brown/Icon Sportswire) Let’s Talk About Teasers – Week 4 NFL Wong Teasers

Welcome back to the weekly Wong Teaser Preview article! In this article, we will take a look at the historical trends and current lines that meet the criteria of the famous blackjack bettor Stanford Wong. If you are unfamiliar with Wong Teasers be sure to check out our Wong Teaser Basics article.

We are back to our winning ways! Only loss coming from the Patriots in a 6-point teaser. Everything kind of fell apart for them in the 4th quarter. They were really able to keep it close the whole way. I unfortunately used the Patriots mainly just fading the massive amount of public sentiment that the Ravens had.

We ultimately went 1-1 this week again washing out any winnings. I think I will be sticking to 2 teamers until I can get back on track.  Luckily I have been killing it ATS so I have built up a little more bankroll to use so we will see how I get these teasers back on track.

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Let’s Talk About Teasers – Week 4

6 Point Teasers

Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is similar to Blackjack expert Stanford Wong’s strategy:

– Tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3

– Tease the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9.

Sweetheart Teasers

10-point teasers are often called “sweetheart” teasers.

– For 10-point teasers, tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½;

– Tease the favorite at -10, -10½

– Do not take sweetheart teasers at +3


Week 4 Lines

All lines are courtesy of WynnBet. Please note that the results posted next week may differ from what is below due to line movement.

This will show the total and the Record of that team as a 6pt teaser in the current situation this week. So if they’re an underdog, their record below will be their record as an underdog. The total is only on this chart so you can reference it.

Wednesday Spread Total Record since 2018 10 Point Record
Saints +3 43.5 9-4
Bears +3 39 8-0
Falcons +1.5 50 8-1 8-1
Titans +3 42.5 6-4
Broncos +2.5 46 10-2 10-2
Commanders +3 42.5 10-3
Rams +1.5 42 7-4 9-2
Ravens +3 51 7-1
Jets +3 41.5 8-1

So how do I bet these?

Typically, I will form 2-3 teasers taking in information from handicappers at the Sports Gambling Podcast Network as well as my own handicaps on teams that meet the criteria. As well as any additional trends.


2022 Results

Teaser Line Record Win %
6 pt +1 ½ thru +3 8-7 53.33%
6 pt -7 ½ thru -9 1-1 50%
10 pt +1 ½ thru +2 ½ 5-3 62.5%
10 pt -10 thru -10.5 4-0 100%

 

Week Record Win %
1 1-4 20%
2 2-2 50%
3 5-1 83.33%

If you are interested in doing a little deeper dive into these bets continue below…

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Historical Wong Teaser Stats

Teaser Year Spread Record Win %
6 pt 2018 +1½ thru +3 59-18 76.62%
6 pt 2019 +1½ thru +3 52-18 74.29%
6 pt 2020 +1½ thru +3 60-16 78.95%
6 pt 2021 +1½ thru +3 67-17 79.76%
6 pt 2018 -7½ thru -9 18-3 85.71%
6 pt 2019 -7½ thru -9 13-4 76.47%
6 pt 2020 -7½ thru -9 25-3 89.29%
6 pt 2021 -7½ thru -9 24-5 82.76%
10 pt 2018 +1½ thru +2½ 35-3 92.1%
10 pt 2019 +1½ thru +2½ 35-5 87.5%
10 pt 2020 +1½ thru +2½ 34-6 85%
10 pt 2021 +1½ thru +2½ 36-3 92.3%
10 pt 2018 -10 thru -10½ 10-1 90.91%
10 pt 2019 -10 thru -10½ 10-3 76.92%
10 pt 2020 -10 thru -10½ 8-0 100%
10 pt 2021 -10 thru -10½ 13-0 100%

Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have a breakeven-or-better EV. For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. These are specifically for my book so yours may differ.

DENVER, CO – SEPTEMBER 25: San Francisco 49ers defensive end Drake Jackson (95) celebrates after a defensive stop during a game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High on September 25, 2022 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire) Let’s Talk About Teasers – Week 4 NFL Wong Teasers


Weekly Wong Teaser Records 2018-2021

Week Record Win %
1 22-4 84.62%
2 17-3 85%
3 26-2 92.86%
4 16-6 72.73%
5 19-4 82.61%
6 17-8 73.08%
7 15-6 68%
8 12-1 92.3%
9 17-3 85%
10 16-4 80%
11 14-8 63.64%
12 22-3 88%
13 17-4 80.95%
14 22-9 70.97%
15 18-4 81.82%
16 23-4 85.19%
17 9-7 56.25%
18 2-0 100%

Regarding Game Totals < 49

Do totals matter? Another word of advice that some Wong bettors give is to only play games with low totals. The idea certainly makes sense: points are harder to come by in a low-scoring game, so the 6-point tease is worth more. But what does the data say about this in the last three years?

From 2018-2021, here are the statistics including playoffs:

Bet Record Win %
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3 234-65 78.26%
Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 177-50 77.97%
Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 36-13 73.47%

 

Bet Record Win %
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 76-15 83.52%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 60-11 84.5%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 12-1 92.3%

 

If you wanted to look at only home favorites (Wong’s original criteria is home favorites):

Bet Record Win %
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 53-12 81.25%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 43-9 82.7%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 9-1 90%

Here are the results for 2022:

Bet Record Win %
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3 8-7 53.33%
Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 8-4 66.67%
Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 3-0 100%

 

Bet Record Win %
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 1-1 50%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 1-1 50%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 1-1 50%

Let’s Talk About Teasers – Week 4 NFL Wong Teasers

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