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Duke vs. North Carolina – NCAA Tournament Final Four – Predictions, Betting Lines, Odds and Trends

A spot in the NCAA Tournament National Championship is on the line as the No. 2 seed Duke Blue Devils (32-6, 16-4 ACC) and the No. 8 seed North Carolina Tar Heels (28-9, 15-5 ACC) play on Saturday at 8:49 PM at Caesars Superdome (airing on TBS). Duke is a 4.5-point favorite to survive and advance in this Final Four matchup.

Duke vs. North Carolina Predictions

Duke vs. North Carolina Betting Odds

Duke vs North Carolina Betting Information
Favorite Spread Total
Duke -4.5 151 points

Duke vs. North Carolina Last 10 Games

  • Duke is 8-2 overall and 4-6-0 against the spread over its past 10 contests.
  • The final score of the last 10 Duke games has surpassed the set total eight times.
  • The Blue Devils’ past 10 games have ended with an average of 145.4 points scored. That’s 5.6 fewer points than this contest’s over/under.
  • During the past 10 games, the Blue Devils are scoring 0.7 points more per game compared to their season average.
  • North Carolina covered the spread nine times in its last 10 contests while putting up a 9-1 record straight-up in those games.
  • The final scores of the last 10 North Carolina games have gone over the set total five times.
  • The Tar Heels’ last 10 games have ended with an average of 144.2 points scored. That’s 6.8 fewer points than this contest’s over/under.
  • During the past 10 games, the Tar Heels are scoring 79 points per game compared to their 78.1 season average.

Duke vs. North Carolina Betting Trends

  • Duke is 22-17-1 against the spread this season.
  • In games this season when favored by 4.5 points or more, the Blue Devils are 17-16-1 against the spread.
  • This season, 23 of Duke’s games have gone over the point total out of 40 chances.
  • The Blue Devils put up nine more points per game (80.1) than the Tar Heels allow (71.1).
  • Duke has a 17-6-1 record against the spread and a 21-3 record overall when scoring more than 71.1 points.
  • North Carolina is 22-16-1 against the spread this season.
  • The Tar Heels are 4-1 ATS when playing as at least 4.5-point underdogs.
  • This season, North Carolina’s games have hit the over 22 times out of 39 chances.
  • The Tar Heels score 10.7 more points per game (78.1) than the Blue Devils give up to opponents (67.4).
  • North Carolina is 14-10-1 against the spread and 21-5 overall when it scores more than 67.4 points.

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Duke vs. North Carolina Over/Under Trends

  • This season, 16 of Duke’s 40 games have gone over Saturday’s over/under of 151 points.
  • This season, 20 games North Carolina played finished with a combined score over 151 points.
  • The Blue Devils average 80.1 points per game against the Tar Heels’ 78.1, amounting to 7.2 points over the contest’s total of 151.
  • This game’s point total is 12.5 fewer points than the 138.5 these two teams combine to give up per game in 2020.
  • The Blue Devils have seen a 145.5 average over/under in their games this season, 5.5 points fewer than the over/under in this matchup.
  • A difference of 3.9 points separates this matchup’s over/under (151 points) and the average total points bet in Tar Heels’ games (147.1 points) this season.

Duke Team Leaders

  • Paolo Banchero: 17.1 PTS, 7.8 REB, 1.1 STL, 47.8 FG%, 33.3 3PT% (42-for-126)
  • Wendell Moore: 13.5 PTS, 1.3 STL, 50.8 FG%, 41.1 3PT% (51-for-124)
  • Mark Williams: 11.3 PTS, 7.5 REB, 2.9 BLK, 71.9 FG%
  • Trevor Keels: 11.3 PTS, 1.2 STL, 41.2 FG%, 31.3 3PT% (52-for-166)
  • AJ Griffin: 10.5 PTS, 50.2 FG%, 45.8 3PT% (71-for-155)

North Carolina Team Leaders

  • Armando Bacot: 16.5 PTS, 12.8 REB, 1.7 BLK, 58.6 FG%
  • Brady Manek: 15.2 PTS, 49.5 FG%, 39.8 3PT% (92-for-231)
  • Caleb Love: 15.7 PTS, 37.1 FG%, 37.1 3PT% (89-for-240)
  • RJ Davis: 13.4 PTS, 1.1 STL, 42.9 FG%, 37.4 3PT% (64-for-171)
  • Rechon ‘Leaky’ Black: 4.9 PTS, 47.4 FG%, 33.3 3PT% (15-for-45)

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