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Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots – NFL – Predictions, Betting Lines, Odds and Trends

The AFC Wild Card round of the 2021 NFL Playoffs features a battle between the New England Patriots (who are 4-point underdogs) and the Buffalo Bills on January 15, 2022 at 8:15 PM ET on CBS. The total is 44 points for this game.

Bills vs. Patriots Predictions

Bills vs. Patriots Odds

Bills vs Patriots Betting Information
Favorite Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline
Bills -4 -110 -110 44 -110 -110 -204 +169

Bills and Patriots: Last Three Games

  • Buffalo is 2-0-1 against the spread and 3-0 overall in its last three games.
  • The final combined score of the past three Bills games went over the set total once.
  • The last three Bills games averaged 44.0 total points, the same as this matchup’s over/under.
  • New England is 1-2-0 against the spread and 1-2 overall in its last three contests.
  • The final combined score of the past three Patriots games has surpassed the set total each time.
  • The Patriots’ past three games have ended with an average of 42.0 points scored. That’s 2.0 fewer points than this contest’s over/under.

Bills and Patriots: Betting Trends

  • Buffalo is 9-6-2 against the spread this season.
  • The Bills have an ATS record of 6-4-2 when playing as at least 4-point favorites.
  • This season, eight of Buffalo’s games have gone over the point total.
  • The Bills have won nine of the 14 games they were favored on the moneyline this season (64.3%).
  • Buffalo is 8-4 (winning 66.7% of its games) when it has played as a moneyline favorite of -204 or shorter.
  • Based on this game’s moneyline, the Bills’ implied win probability is 67.1%.
  • New England is 10-7-0 against the spread this season.
  • The Patriots have a perfect 1-0 ATS record when playing as at least 4-point underdogs.
  • This season, New England’s games have hit the over nine times.
  • The Patriots have won two of the five games they’ve played as underdogs this season.
  • New England has played as an underdog of +169 or more once this season and lost that game.

Over/Under Trends

  • Buffalo and its opponents have combined to outscore Saturday’s total of 44 points nine times this season.
  • A total of 10 of New England’s games finished with a combined score over 44 points this season.
  • The point total for the game of 44 is 11.6 points fewer than the combined points per game averages for the Bills (28.4 points per game) and the Patriots (27.2 points per game).
  • These two teams give up a combined 34.8 points per game, 9.2 points less than this contest’s over/under.
  • On average, the Bills have seen a 47.4 over/under in their games this season, 3.4 more points than the over/under in this matchup.
  • The over/under for this matchup is 0.1 points fewer than the average over/under in Patriots’ games this season (44.1 points).

Bills Players to Watch

  • Josh Allen is the top fantasy player overall with 402.6 points (averaging 23.7 per game).
  • Stefon Diggs has put up total 182.5 fantasy points this year (10.7 per game), which make him the 45th-ranked player overall and the eighth-ranked receiver.
  • So far this season, Devin Singletary averages 9.3 fantasy points per game on the way to 157.8 total fantasy points. That makes him the 60th-ranked fantasy player overall and the 19th-ranked running back.
  • Dawson Knox is the 102nd-ranked fantasy player — and the sixth-ranked tight end — with 115.1 fantasy points. He averages 6.8 fantasy points per game.

Patriots Players to Watch

  • So far this season, Mac Jones is the 23rd-best fantasy player overall this season and the 17th-best fantasy quarterback with 224.9 fantasy points (13.2 per game).
  • Damien Harris has collected 192.1 fantasy points this year (11.3 per game), good enough to place him eighth among running backs and 37th overall in league-wide fantasy standings.
  • Kendrick Bourne averages 7.4 fantasy points per game on the way to 125.5 total fantasy points. That makes him the 89th-ranked fantasy player overall and the 29th-ranked receiver.
  • Hunter Henry is the 103rd-ranked fantasy player — and the seventh-ranked tight end — with 114.3 fantasy points (6.7 per game).

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