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New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills – NFL – Predictions, Betting Lines, Odds and Trends

Oddsmakers project a tight contest between AFC East opponents when the New England Patriots (9-5) host the Buffalo Bills (8-6) on Sunday, December 26, 2021 at Gillette Stadium. Buffalo is a 2.5-point underdogs. The total has been set at 43.5 points for this game.

Patriots vs. Bills Predictions

Patriots Vs. Bills Odds

Patriots vs Bills Betting Information
Favorite Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline
Patriots -2.5 -109 -111 43.5 -111 -109 -133 +112

Patriots and Bills: Last Three Games

  • New England is 2-1-0 against the spread and 2-1 overall in its past three contests.
  • One time in those three games, the final combined score surpassed the set total.
  • The past three Patriots games averaged 0.7 fewer points (42.8) than this matchup’s over/under.
  • Buffalo is 1-2-0 against the spread and 1-2 overall over its past three contests.
  • The Bills and their opponents have hit the over in two of those games.
  • The last three Bills games averaged 45.0 total points, 1.5 more points than this matchup’s over/under.

Patriots and Bills: Betting Trends

  • New England is 9-5-0 against the spread this season.
  • The Patriots are 6-3 ATS when playing as at least 2.5-point favorites.
  • Games involving New England have hit the over six times this season.
  • The Patriots have won seven of the nine games they were listed as the moneyline favorite this season (77.8%).
  • In games it has played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -133 or shorter, New England has a 7-2 record (winning 77.8% of its games).
  • The Patriots have an implied moneyline win probability of 57.1% in this matchup.
  • Buffalo has covered the spread seven times in 14 games with a set spread.
  • In games they have played as 2.5-point underdogs or more, the Bills have an ATS record of 1-1.
  • Games involving Buffalo have hit the over seven times this season.
  • The Bills have split the two games they’ve played as underdogs this season.
  • Buffalo has a record of 1-1 in games where bookmakers have them as underdogs of at least +112 on the moneyline.

Over/Under Trends

  • New England and its opponents have combined to hit the over on Sunday’s total of 43.5 points seven times this season.
  • In Buffalo’s 14 games this season, seven have finished with more combined scoring than Sunday’s point total of 43.5.
  • Together, the two teams combine for 54.3 points per game, 10.8 points more than the over/under of 43.5 for this matchup.
  • These two teams give up a combined 33.6 points per game, 9.9 points less than this contest’s over/under.
  • This season, the average total for Patriots games is 44.5 points, 1.0 more than the over/under of 43.5 points for this contest.
  • The over/under for this contest is 4.6 points fewer than the average over/under in Bills’ games this season (48.1 points).

Patriots Players to Watch

  • Mac Jones is the No. 28 fantasy player overall and the No. 21 fantasy quarterback with 186.7 points (averaging 13.3 per game).
  • Damien Harris’ 133.8 total fantasy points (an average of 9.6 per game), are enough to place him 59th overall and 18th among running backs.
  • So far this season, Hunter Henry averages 7.2 fantasy points per game on the way to 101.1 total fantasy points. That makes him the 94th-ranked fantasy player overall and the fifth-ranked tight end.
  • Jakobi Meyers is the 139th-ranked fantasy player — and the 46th-ranked receiver — with 75.1 fantasy points. He averages 5.4 fantasy points per game.

Bills Players to Watch

  • So far this season, Josh Allen is the top fantasy player overall with 326.9 fantasy points (23.3 per game).
  • Stefon Diggs has racked up 148.7 fantasy points this year (10.6 per game), good enough to place him eighth among receivers and 51st overall in league-wide fantasy standings.
  • Dawson Knox’s 102.7 total fantasy points make him the No. 93 fantasy player and No. 4 tight end. He averages 7.3 fantasy points per game.
  • Devin Singletary has put together the 95th-ranked fantasy season (28th among running backs) with 97.8 fantasy points, averaging 7.0 per game.

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